Erdogan hopes for first-round victory, united opposition believes in runoff

ANKARA, (Patria) - More than 50 million voters will have the opportunity to vote today in early presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey. 

These are the first elections held after last year's referendum on constitutional changes and the introduction of a presidential system. Six candidates are participating in the presidential elections, and eight political parties in the parliamentary elections.

For the first time in Turkish parliamentary practice, parties have announced coalitions: the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), while on the other side, four opposition parties (CHP, IYI, SD, and DP) have signed a coalition cooperation agreement.

The pro-Kurdish HDP remained outside the coalitions, and according to public opinion polls, it is on the verge of the electoral threshold but has a fair chance of entering parliament. The Turkish electoral system is known for having the highest threshold in the world, at 10 percent.

According to public opinion polls, Turkish President and AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has the best chance of remaining in office, but it appears the winner will be known in the second round. In a recent interview, Erdogan stated he hopes for a first-round victory in the presidential elections, but polls show it is unlikely any candidate will secure an absolute majority on June 24.

Depending on the poll, Erdogan can count on the support of 45 to 52 percent of voters in the first round, while Muharrem Ince, the candidate of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), is predicted to have around 30 percent. Meral Aksener, the candidate of the conservative Good Party (IYI), and Selahattin Demirtas, the imprisoned leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), can each count on the support of 10-12 percent of voters. The remaining two candidates have negligible support, at the level of statistical error.

If he does not win in the first round, Erdogan faces the danger of united opposition votes, but most observers agree he will manage to win. A bigger problem for Erdogan will be if his AKP fails to retain an absolute majority in parliament, which will henceforth have 600 deputies.

Although Turkey's new constitution and presidential system have abolished the post of prime minister, and the head of state, who receives broader powers, will appoint ministers, parliamentary support is necessary. Erdogan has announced the possibility of forming a coalition government if his party does not win an absolute majority.

- The chances of that are very small - Erdogan believes, who has already outlined the contours of his future government.

- In the presidential system of government, we will reduce the number of ministries to 16 - Erdogan stated at the new, third Istanbul airport, which will officially open on October 29.

Erdogan has been President of Turkey since 2014, having previously served as Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014. His AKP has won parliamentary elections since 2002.