Long-term weather forecast: Most precipitation in February, most frosty days in January

(Patria) - According to the seasonal forecast based on the results of dynamic and statistical models from (MedCOF-24) and (SEECof-33), as well as statistical forecast models of FHMZ for the area of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the winter (period - December 1, 2025 – February 28, 2026) should be warmer compared to the climatological normal for the period (1991-2020).

The largest temperature deviations compared to the normal are expected in January. The average temperature in some areas could be higher than 2.5°C. The smallest deviations are expected in December.

The winter of 2025 – 2026, in terms of air temperature, should be similar to the previous season of 2024 – 2025. The expected number of frosty days (minimum air temperature < 0.0 °C) in Bosnia during the winter (2025-2026) is up to 60, and in the southern Herzegovina region, up to 15 frosty days are predicted.



The probability of the forecast coming true is moderate to high (up to 50%) for the mentioned option.

The precipitation forecast, compared to the air temperature forecast, is less reliable for a long-term period. Therefore, precipitation forecasts should be taken with a greater degree of reservation compared to air temperature forecasts.

At the same time, it is very difficult in the winter period to predict the type of precipitation in certain periods during the season. During the climatological winter (December, January, and February), the probability of possible scenarios for the wider region is almost equal. For the area of Bosnia and Herzegovina, expected precipitation amounts should be lower than average for the period (DJF). The distribution of precipitation during the winter will be uneven. During the winter period, longer periods without precipitation are not excluded, but also larger amounts of precipitation in a short period. Most precipitation is predicted in February.