Second Instance Verdict for Dodik: Legal Act or Political Farce?

By: Amina Čorbo-Zećo

A second instance verdict for Milorad Dodik, SNSD leader, president of Republika Srpska, and a man who has been synonymous with institutional blockade, ethno-nationalist discourse, and constant attacks on the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina for years, is expected soon.

But as the clock ticks and the potential political consequences of the verdict are already stirring up emotions on the other side of the entity line, silence prevails in the Federation.

Media in Republika Srpska and Serbia have been amplifying the narrative for days, based on the premises 'Will the verdict relax or escalate relations', 'The court will decide on the stability of BiH', 'The West is attacking Dodik because he does not agree to NATO'...

Editorial boards are presenting the verdict as a referendum on Serbian political will, not as a legal act within the framework of criminal responsibility of an official who knowingly ignored decisions he shouldn't have, as stipulated by criminal law.

It is a separate issue whether Christian Schmidt should have acted on the Criminal Code at all and characterized the non-compliance with his decisions as a criminal offense (that is a question for parliamentarians and BiH politics), but the fact is that violating the decisions of the Constitutional Court has long been a criminal offense, and Dodik has constantly done so, yet there was no indictment for this offense.

Interestingly, while the media in RS and Serbia are 'pumping' stories to the contrary, the majority of media in the Federation of BiH are silent. Only occasional news reports, without serious analysis, without context, without reminding the public why Dodik is being tried. As if it were just another date on the calendar.

This lethargy is not accidental. It comes after a bitter experience with the case of "overthrowing the constitutional order," in which Dodik and his close associates, including the president of the entity government, ministers, and other RS officials, were suspects. The outcome was a devastating agreement, postponement, breach of trust. And worst of all, it all happened with quiet nods of approval, even from the highest state-level authorities. Political compromise devoured justice.

The expert public, which had commented on almost every judicial proceeding for months, is now silent. There are no constitutional lawyers. There are no public forums. There are no analytical texts. As if everyone is afraid of a wrong prediction. Or even worse, as if no one cares anymore. It should be particularly emphasized that everyone is talking about Dodik's appeal, and no one about the Prosecutor's Office's appeal, which also appealed the first-instance verdict, demanding the maximum sentence. And neither the public nor the politics in the Federation are paying attention to this fact.

In such an environment, the second instance verdict for Milorad Dodik could pass as a legal footnote, instead of a political earthquake. If it is a conviction, an orchestrated narrative of political persecution will follow in RS. If it is an acquittal, the silence will be a general confirmation of the already signed capitulation.

Because the problem is not just with Dodik. The problem is with all of us. With the system that doesn't know or doesn't want to react. With the media that are more concerned with entertainment than with important state issues. With the intellectual community that has withdrawn from the public sphere. With the political structures that prefer to trade justice rather than defend it.

Ultimately, regardless of the verdict, Dodik will remain a political factor. But what we can lose is the last glimmer of belief that BiH can be a state of equals, that its institutions are valuable, that the Constitution must be respected by all.

And that is a greater tragedy than any verdict.