As parties rearrange, the state stands still: Dodik–Čović relationship casts a shadow over BiH

By: Amina Čorbo-Zećo

With six months left until the elections, the political scene in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially in the Federation, appears more confusing than ever. Instead of clear political positions and answers to key questions, we are witnessing almost daily rearrangements in the coalition capacity of parties that, at least declaratively, claim to act in the interest of citizens.

In doing so, it seems the fact that everything related to the political relationship and interest alliance between Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović represents a serious problem for the functioning of Bosnia and Herzegovina is consciously being ignored.

The so-called Trojka, consisting of People and Justice, the Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Our Party, entered power with the promise of a different political approach. However, as time goes by, the question of their real political strength and autonomy, as well as their ability to survive in the current relationships, is increasingly being raised. Because they were imposed into power, and that's how they have acted all this time. They worked according to the dictates of those who brought them to power.

The SDP is increasingly distancing itself from the Trojka and moving closer to the Party of Democratic Action, although some cantonal committees of the SDA reject such an alliance, aware that this is a politically seen-before model. Such combinations further confuse voters, as they erase lines that have been presented as insurmountable for years, especially due to their governance over the last three years.

In all of this, the Dodik–Čović relationship is almost pushed into the background. This relationship, which many call a political pact, is also reflected in key infrastructure and energy projects, including the Southern Interconnection.

The Southern Interconnection, which should be a strategic project for the country's energy security and diversification of gas supply sources, is increasingly becoming a hostage to political interests. Instead of being driven by economic logic and public interest, this project is turning into a field of political competition and control over resources.

Critics of such policies warn that behind the blockades and conditions are often networks of politically connected actors, from lobbyists to companies close to centers of power, who seek to ensure control over future cash flows. In this context, every major investment, including the Southern Interconnection, is seen as an opportunity for the distribution of influence and financial benefits. And Čović and Dodik play a key role here too!?

Now the question arises whether the parties from the Federation have the right to rearrange themselves for future coalitions in the midst of the struggle for state interests. Because, while political elites engage in their tactical games, key state issues remain on the sidelines. The issue of state property has still not been resolved, although it represents one of the most important issues for the functionality of the state.

At the same time, the European and NATO path of Bosnia and Herzegovina is stalled. Although formally everyone swears by European integration, concrete steps are lacking, and reform processes are stagnating. Instead of strategic decisions, we are witnessing short-term political calculations aimed at preserving power, not the long-term development of the country.

All of this gives the impression that the political struggle in Bosnia and Herzegovina is increasingly less about ideas, programs, and vision, and more about mathematical combinations and the distribution of power. In such an environment, citizens remain hostages to political uncertainties, without a clear answer as to who, how, and with whom they plan to lead the country after the elections and, more importantly, with what program.

If this trend continues, the upcoming elections will not bring fundamental changes, but only a new rearrangement of the same actors in a slightly different order. And the issues on which the future of the country depends will remain on hold.