While Americans Offer Non-Paper Solutions, Britons Are Determined That Bosnia and Herzegovina's Borders Will Not Change

(Patria) - The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies from Ljubljana regularly analyzes events in the Middle East, the Balkans, and around the world. On the occasion of the unconstitutional actions of Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and the further escalation of the political and security crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), IFIMES has prepared an analysis of current events in our country. We convey the most important parts of this analysis.

Trilateral – the first US plan

The American initiative on the trilateral US-Bosnia and Herzegovina-Serbia made Milorad Dodik (SNSD) nervous and he is making unreasonable moves that lead to the disappearance of the RS entity. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia are slated for simultaneous entry into NATO and the EU, and the outcome of negotiations between the US and the Russian Federation is awaited. The maximum concession to Serbia is the possibility of maintaining a status of military neutrality, but entry into the EU is mandatory, as is the obligation to cede rare metal deposits to the US. There is no place for Dodik in the negotiations.

"Non-paper" – the second US plan

The Americans have prepared another "Non-paper", which is located in the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Sarajevo, representing the second US plan.

It concerns a new reorganization of Bosnia and Herzegovina into regions, without entities. Everyone is abandoning their previously proclaimed goals. A kind of Marshall Plan is being implemented, but the three dominant national leaders are disappearing. Truth and reconciliation commissions are being formed based on the experiences of the Republic of South Africa. All requirements for EU accession are being implemented, and special ties are being abolished.

The novelty is the role and place of Turkey in the implementation of American plans. It is interesting that the US has ceded the role of mediator to the OHR and the High Representative, but also to the EU. What is this actually about?

Turkey's historical return to the Balkans and Europe

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's recent statement that Turkey, as a full member of the EU, can save the European Union from its crises, whether economic, defense, political, security, or international standing, has opened a "Pandora's box" and Turkey, analysts believe, is seriously preparing for inclusion in security and economic flows with the EU after entering Syria and reaching an agreement with the pro-American Kurdish SDF, which controls a quarter of Syria with the help of 2,000 American soldiers. Turkey is getting a "free hand" for a historical return to the Balkans and the EU. As a member of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) in BiH and as part of international military forces in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the support of the US and Russia, Turkey will become an indispensable factor in resolving the crisis in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Turkey is emerging as a serious partner for the EU due to its political-intelligence and security-military ties with Ukraine, but also with Russia and the US, and especially with Islamic countries, starting from Saudi Arabia, Iran to Iraq and Qatar, and even the UAE. Also, Turkey has good relations with Serbia and Croatia, but the geopolitical situation is such that Turkey will have to concentrate its military and intelligence forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as a counterweight to the great-state projects, not only of Serbia, but also of Croatia, Hungary, and Albania. Turkey would have the role of guardian of the Balkan borders and protector of the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina. We recall the recent statement by the President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, that Turkey will not allow the suffering of Bosnia and Herzegovina from the 1990s to be repeated.

"We will continue our initiatives until a lasting solution is achieved. I don't even feel the need to say that we will not refrain from a more decisive stance if necessary. There is no longer the Turkey from the era of Alija Izetbegović, the Chairman of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina; today there is a different Turkey. Therefore, the steps we take will be significantly different," said Erdoğan.

It should be noted that Azerbaijan, with the help of Turkey, regained the occupied territories in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and established its integrity and sovereignty over the entire territory, which confirms Turkey's determination and growing influence.

Why does Hungary support Dodik?

Hungary's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Levente Magyar, stated, "The West always decides about Eastern Europe without knowledge and understanding of history."

"Hungary is here in the neighborhood, only 70 kilometers away. The time when Hungary was just an observer of events is over. We have opted for a policy of understanding and against the intentions of the West," stated Levente Magyar.

Of course, those 70 km cross the territory of the Republic of Croatia, and it is known that Hungary lays claim to territories of the Republic of Croatia, Romania, but also Serbia and Slovenia. According to certain information, Great Britain will not allow the redrawing of Bosnia and Herzegovina's borders and is ready to react militarily, placing Viktor Orbán on the same level as Vladimir Putin.

Analysts warn of possible future activities by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Slovakia, who is ready to get involved in further destabilization of Bosnia and Herzegovina as "assistance" and support for Orbán's efforts and activities in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Leaders of the troika "lost in space"

The so-called leaders of the troika (SDP, People and Justice, and Our Party) are individuals who have furthered the secessionist policy of Milorad Dodik. For the sake of "chairs," they fulfill all the wishes and demands of Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and Dragan Čović (HDZBiH), and their inaction and ignorance, proportionate to the plans of Dodik and Čović for the breakup of BiH, have caused enormous damage.

Their resignations from state functions are the best solution for Bosnia and Herzegovina until the implementation of American plans; the formation of an expert government is emerging as an imperative.

The sluggishness of the three so-called leaders of the troika (Nermin Nikšić, Elmedin Konaković, and Edin Forto) has eliminated the opposition from the Republika Srpska, and as long as Dodik is politically active, problems are created. Unfortunately, "the majority of political Bosniaks" have tried to help Dodik in the process before the Court of BiH, which is why the verdict is what it is – bad.

Dodik as Radovan Karadžić

Dodik's associates, accomplices, and "helpers" are literally copying the plans that Radovan Karadžić (SDS) made with Slobodan Milošević and are trying to translate them into several laws through the National Assembly of the RS (NSRS). Siniša Karan is particularly active, reminiscent of Biljana Plavšić. Dodik is leading the RS towards disappearance, because the West will not repeat Richard Holbrooke's mistake and the mistake of American Democrats who legalized an ethnically cleansed territory as an entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina. American Republicans will not repeat that mistake in a situation where they are trying to close all world conflicts and establish relations with Russia and China on new foundations. Serbia is also being threatened. The demonstrations in Serbia are partly due to Dodik's hostage policy, which Karadžić applied towards Milošević until both ended up in The Hague at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) as war criminals.

EU, BiH, and OHR

Bosnia and Herzegovina is a chance for the EU not to enter new problems. Leaving the US to have exclusive patronage over the Balkans represents a major blow to the EU. If the incompetent so-called troika (SDP, People and Justice, and Our Party) does not bring the opposition from the RS into power, then the High Representative in BiH (OHR) should proceed with measures to ban the political activities of Milorad Dodik and thus facilitate the implementation of the planned projects. It is necessary to involve the EU in every form of protection for BiH and open the way to establish lasting peace and long-term stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Analysts believe that the projection with Turkey is the most expedient for the Balkans and Bosnia and Herzegovina. "European security without Turkey is unthinkable. Europe no longer manages to maintain its status as a global power due to the non-inclusion of Turkey in the Union," said Erdoğan.

Will there be war in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Just as events in Germany are always observed and analyzed with great attention, because that country caused two world wars, caution is needed when it comes to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Any radicalization in Germany causes caution and concern in the rest of the world.

Analysts believe that current events in Bosnia and Herzegovina require caution and concern not only for historical reasons, because in 1914, one of the most fateful assassinations in all of world history, that of Austro-Hungarian heir apparent and Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, provided the pretext for the First World War, but also due to the fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina was in the recent past (1992-1995) the victim of a brutal war and military aggression, which, if repeated, would no longer be a local war but a war of European proportions with unforeseeable consequences, and this is a real threat and danger. The current crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not only political but also security-related, the analysis states.