Dodikov referendum-otvaranje Pandorine kutije na Balkanu?

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, local elections will be held on October 2. The total number of voters is 3,345,486. The number of voters voting by mail has significantly increased in the upcoming elections and amounts to 65,111 voters. Approximately 30,000 candidates are running for positions in the future local government in the local elections. 2,835 councilors will be elected, 1,687 in the Federation of BiH (FBiH), 1,117 in Republika Srpska (RS), and 31 representatives in the Assembly of Brčko District of BiH, 301 city councilors, 117 in the Federation and 184 in RS. Also, 131 municipal mayors and 12 city mayors will be elected.

Elections are held in all local self-government units, except for the city of Mostar, where elections have not been held since 2008. The greatest responsibility for the situation in Mostar lies with the two ruling parties, the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) and the Croatian Democratic Union of BiH (HDZBiH). Although both parties optimistically announced reaching an agreement on holding local elections in Mostar, the ruling establishment still did not reach an agreement that would allow for local elections to be held.

Elections Marked by Traditional Political Rivalries

The election campaign for the local elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina is marked by traditional political rivalries.

In Republika Srpska, we have two traditionally opposing political blocs. On one side, we have the political bloc of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), the Democratic People's Alliance (DNS), and the Socialist Party (SP), while on the other side is the Alliance for Change bloc, which includes the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP), and the National Democratic Movement (NDP).

The Alliance for Change bloc is significantly weakened due to the collaboration of Mladen Ivanić, honorary president of PDP and Serb member of the Presidency of BiH, with Milorad Dodik, president of SNSD and president of RS. PDP is rapidly losing support among the electorate, and therefore Ivanić is trying to regain lost support among the electorate with inappropriate rhetoric that further escalates and disrupts relations in BiH. This is classic "political prostitution" which is otherwise characteristic of Ivanić.

In the Federation of BiH, the coalition of SDA-SBB parties (SBB - Alliance for a Better Future) is the absolute favorite in the local elections. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) is in deep defense and trying to position itself within the opposition. The Democratic Front (DF) is trying to impose itself as an opposition and a fierce critic of the government, which it is partially succeeding in due to numerous oversights by the current government.

The SDA-SBB coalition will gradually lead to the takeover of SBB by SDA, which is becoming increasingly noticeable. The court prosecution of SBB president Fahrudin Radončić has left deep consequences on the future of that party. The election of a new SBB president could potentially contribute to mitigating SBB's decline and open up the possibility for that party to break free from SDA's embrace.

The elections in Brčko District of BiH will be particularly interesting. Brčko has become a testing ground for political parties from RS and FBiH. All major parties have announced their large pre-election rallies in Brčko, which further exacerbates the atmosphere within the District, which has seen significant decline in recent years. Brčko District of BiH is an administrative unit within BiH, which probably has the most started but fewest completed projects.

HDZBiH politically dominates in areas predominantly inhabited by Croats, and it will be difficult to threaten the party's position in those areas.

Local elections in Srebrenica have a special status due to the committed genocide against Bosniaks and the illegal registration of a significant number of voters from Serbia on the voter list for the municipality of Srebrenica. Therefore, it will be particularly important to monitor Srebrenica due to the aforementioned and possible new abuses in the electoral process and in the elections themselves.

Although these are different opposing political options at higher levels of government, at the local level, numerous unprincipled coalitions and a significant number of independent candidates and lists are present.

Who Does the Mayor of Ljubljana Janković Support?

Although local elections are primarily an internal political issue, this is not the case in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Politicians from Serbia, and to a lesser extent from Croatia, actively participate in election campaigns in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is not uncommon for politicians from Turkey to participate in election campaigns in BiH.

The latest example of participation in the election campaign in BiH is the mayor of Ljubljana, Zoran Janković, who recently in Banja Luka supported the candidate for mayor Igor Radojičić (SNSD) from Dodik's SNSD.

The US administration imposed "quiet" sanctions on SNSD in February 2008, so three US agencies, including the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the US National Democratic Institute (NDI), and the International Republican Institute (IRI), stopped providing assistance to SNSD, whose president is Milorad Dodik.

The US government decided to stop all funding, assessing that SNSD no longer meets the criteria for USAID assistance programs to political parties, as the US administration does not provide financial or technical assistance to any political and/or nationalist party in Bosnia and Herzegovina based on ethnicity or nationalism.

SNSD's program is not in line with BiH's commitment to Euro-Atlantic integration. The administration assessed that SNSD's actions and statements have not contributed to BiH's progress, are not in accordance with the Dayton Peace Agreement, and undermine the state institutions necessary for achieving BiH's Euro-Atlantic goals. SNSD is burdened by the stigma of crime and corruption, and its president Milorad Dodik is increasingly an exponent of Russian policy in BiH and a symbol of crime and corruption. SNSD has been expelled from the Socialist International (SI) and the Party of European Socialists (PES).

Ljubljana Mayor Janković continued his series of endorsements in Brčko District of BiH, where he supported the candidate for mayor, the recently dismissed director of JP "Komunalno Brčko" in Brčko, Admir Nuković (BDP), who is running in the elections with his Brčko Democratic Movement (BDP). This candidate is also associated with certain burdens and controversies that call into question his credibility and diminish his democratic capacity.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also interfered in the election campaign in BiH, directly supporting the election campaign by paying out a loan tranche on September 12, 2016, to the Governments of FBiH and RS, by supporting the current ruling structures.

Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić also joined the election campaign by participating in the opening of the Prnjavor - Doboj highway, an event that has nothing to do with the Government of the Republic of Serbia. This highway was named "January 9th", a date that the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina declared unconstitutional. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is involved in the entire story surrounding the "January 9th" highway, having financed the entire project with a loan of EUR 180 million, which was ultimately given the controversial and unconstitutional name "January 9th".

Although these are local elections, too many actors are involved in the elections and the electoral process. Many of them complicate the already complex and difficult situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The pre-election period, given the experiences from 25 years ago, resembles the pre-war period in some aspects, and the smell of war in BiH can already be felt.

New Geopolitical Changes

Current events in Bosnia and Herzegovina are further complicated by the announced referendum in Republika Srpska for September 25, 2016, which aims to annul the decision of the Constitutional Court of BiH, which declared January 9th as the Day of Republika Srpska unconstitutional because it offends the feelings of the other two peoples in the RS entity, Bosniaks and Croats, and that date was determined by the will of only one people – Serbs.

The High Representative in BiH (OHR), Valentin Inzko, and the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) in BiH assessed the announced referendum on the Day of RS as an anti-Dayton activity that threatens stability and peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region.

Milorad Dodik is trying to force the Constitutional Court of BiH to annul its decision, or to review the rendered judgment. This is a legal nonsense, as the decisions of the Constitutional Court are not subject to review, because the Constitutional Court of BiH would effectively abolish itself with a possible review, which is Dodik's goal.

In his speeches, Dodik often emphasizes that decisions in BiH must be made by consensus of all three peoples, while the decision on "January 9th" was made by the will of representatives of only one people - Serbs. The solution to the current crisis is to make a decision on the Day of RS by consensus of all three peoples: Serbs, Bosniaks, and Croats. However, it is noticeable that Dodik lacks democratic capacity, but rather tries to achieve his only goal – remaining in power – through an instrumentalist approach and manipulation, abusing the feelings of Serbs.

Russia is strongly involved in the events related to the referendum in RS, as is Serbia, although Aleksandar Vučić and Tomislav Nikolić have stated that they do not support the referendum, but they do not oppose it either. This is tacit consent, because those familiar with political decision-making know that key decisions for Republika Srpska are made in Belgrade. This was also the case this time.

The revelation of Russia's role is also supported by the announced visit of Milorad Dodik to Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 22, 2016. It is unimaginable in international relations for the President of Russia to receive the president of a region from a foreign country, unless they are exponents of Russian policy in that part of the world. In this case, Dodik is serving Russian interests, which are primarily related to preventing BiH from joining NATO as a full member and the possible dissolution of BiH.

The referendum in Republika Srpska on September 25, 2016, is an introduction to new geopolitical upheavals in the region, starting with Macedonia, and the opening of Pandora's box in the Balkans with unforeseeable consequences. Major geopolitical changes are expected in the region and the world, and Dodik's decision to call a referendum could initiate the process of internal (re)organization of BiH.

Analysts believe that if the referendum is held on September 25, a chain reaction of new referendums in BiH and the region could occur. Serbia will not be able to avoid this chain reaction either, as it will likely face a referendum by Albanians in the Preševo Valley (Preševo, Medveđa, Bujanovac) again, who will seek to join Kosovo, as they consider themselves the "eastern Kosovo", and Bosniaks in Sandžak, although most Bosniak leaders are serving Vučić, Bulgarians in the border area with Bulgaria, the Vlach community in eastern Serbia, but also in the perspective, a referendum in Vojvodina, which will not be initiated by minority communities.

The situation will further destabilize in Macedonia, and Serbs in Montenegro, encouraged by the support of Moscow and Belgrade, will work to create their own entity in that country. There are numerous examples that will lead to the destabilization of the region, produced by Dodik's referendum. Any adventure by Serbia with Republika Srpska could cost Serbia the loss of Vojvodina. Russia itself warned Serbia about this a few years ago.

Analysts believe that the announced referendum in RS, according to the doctrine of shock, will lead to the process of internal (re)organization in BiH. In a democracy, it is impossible to radically change the course or direction of a country without some shock that "allows" the one who orchestrated it to organize the country according to their principles and worldview. In Dodik's case, it is a paradox, because he is causing a shock that is in the interest of others, while almost his entire public applauds him for this "suicidal" move.

Analysts believe that the actions of foreign judges in the Constitutional Court of BiH still provide a new quality, as this contributes to reducing the politicization and provincialization of such an important body as the Constitutional Court of BiH.