Dodik's fall in Prijedor complicated by divided opposition, Bosniaks stand aside due to DNS's baggage

By: Ernad Metaj

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We could agree with SDS president Mirko Šarović that a victory for Goran Predojević in the extraordinary local elections in Prijedor would be a clear sign of Milorad Dodik's certain downfall. Behind Predojević, a DNS member, stand the SDS and PDP, but despite their euphoria, victory cannot be declared certain.

Pre-election rallies have shown that Predojević is counting on the support of Bosniaks, in whose neighborhoods he organized campaign events. One was reasonably well attended, the other almost not at all. Many Bosniaks in Prijedor believe they should remain neutral. Regardless of the qualities and integrity of individuals, they say their choice has been reduced to a choice between bad and worse. Predojević carries the baggage of the DNS, which during its rule completely neglected Bosniaks. They blocked the construction of a monument to murdered children, cut off funding for the association of families of Prijedor victims, and reduced funding for returns to a minimum. In the minds of many Bosniaks are the hardships of the courts where they sought compensation for land taken through expropriation.

On the other hand, support for the SNSD candidate Slobodan Javor seems immoral at a time when his party is literally destroying Bosnia and Herzegovina. The majority of elected Bosniak representatives in the city council do not think so. Out of their personal interests, they have divided themselves and are lobbying for different candidates, hoping to profit further after the elections. That it is difficult to promise Bosniak votes for mayor was shown in the last local elections, where they mostly opted to vote only for candidates for the City Council.

Bosniaks are one part of the problem in the Prijedor elections; another, much larger and more significant for the final result, is the internal party turmoil, especially within the opposition. It is estimated that a significant part of the PDP and SDS will not support Predojević. As with the Bosniaks, the reason is the baggage carried by his DNS, which not so long ago ruled this city sovereignly. Because of this, PDP councilors sided with the SNSD after the formation of the government in Prijedor.

What Šarović forgets is that the DNS was previously left by four of its members who, in earlier years, carried their election campaign. Essentially, the opposition in Prijedor is not even a shadow of the unity and strength presented at the entity level.

Although it might seem that everything is playing into the hands of Milorad Dodik and his SNSD, that is not the case. It is difficult to restore citizens' trust after a mayor who was a "tablet addict." Traditional partners of the SNSD have already begun to turn their backs in other areas, and Dodik himself, busy with his obligations to dismantle the state, has not had time to support his own in Prijedor.

And he should have, because objectively, defeat will harm the SNSD more than the opposition. For Dodik, victory would be symbolic because it would not reflect the real strength of his party. On the other hand, we will agree with Šarović that Predojević's victory would be "historic." If a divided opposition wins in Prijedor, then it is clear what awaits Dodik in the general elections. There, even Bosniaks will not be indifferent to who wins.