Dodik has de facto already seceded, Čović will follow him sooner or later

(Patria) - The political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina has not been worse or more difficult since the end of the war, agrees with numerous assessments by analysts and politicians, Professor of International Relations and Geopolitics Jahja Muhasilović.

- It is absolutely not for one simple reason - that the president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, has *de facto* seceded by proclaiming those unconstitutional laws that do not allow state institutions to operate in the territory of the Republika Srpska entity.

He has *de facto* separated and violated Dayton. And by violating Dayton, we now have a post-Dayton situation where things are still unclear.

Does this now mean that we are returning to the Constitution of the Republic of BiH, which no one is even mentioning as a possibility on the political scene, or are we currently living, which is more likely, that Cyprus scenario - which everyone fears - according to which BiH is *de facto* composed of two independent entities.

What is perhaps most dangerous in this whole situation, and the Trojka has tried hard to do this, is to normalize Milorad Dodik's secession. And we are actually normalizing the crisis.

Now, if this continues like this, and I see no indicators that it won't, we will have a situation where Bosnia and Herzegovina will exist on paper - namely, it will have its seat in the UN.

I don't even think Dodik wants to formally secede at this moment, because he is aware that he does not have international support for it. If he were to secede, it would have to go through the UN General Assembly and be voted on, as was the case when BiH became independent.

He does not have a legal basis for it, and we had that Badinter Commission, which stated that the dissolution of Yugoslavia could occur along republican borders. And that commission was an internationally relevant legal body whose opinion was taken as a basis for the recognition of all those republics.

Dodik is aware that he does not have that legal basis. However, he is pursuing another scenario that I consider more dangerous and invisible, and the Trojka and their media are trying hard to cover it up and camouflage it - that Republika Srpska *de facto* becomes independent within BiH.

He will be followed in this sooner or later by HDZ, because we saw in the heat of this Dodik crisis in the first few days that certain cantons where HDZ had power began to disobey the Federation of BiH. So, *de facto*, three quasi-republics are now being created within BiH - emphasizes Muhasilović.

And even more dangerous, he continues, besides the actions of the Trojka and their media, is that state agencies will exist in Bosniak areas, i.e., where "Bosniak parties" have power.

- The State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) will arrest people in those areas, and then a false impression will be created that state agencies and the state still exist.

But this will only be in areas where Bosniaks are, and the reality will be that in 70 percent, perhaps even more, of Bosnia and Herzegovina, state agencies cannot do anything at all.

And then, of course, we have the situation that your media and I, as well as some others, have been mentioning for years, in which Belgrade will *de facto* be the ruler of the Republika Srpska entity, and Zagreb will *de facto* be the ruler of the Federation of BiH - states Muhasilović.

In that newly created normality, Muhasilović points out, HDZ and SNSD would control state institutions, and the only thing that could happen is that Bosniaks would be arrested and silenced, and media darkness would be introduced.


Muhasilović: Čović's Election Law also suits Dodik

- And we, if we do not take matters into our own hands in this regard, will not be able to do anything and will *de facto* become strangers in our own country - states Muhasilović.

As the elections approach, Čović, our interlocutor points out, will increase pressure throughout 2025 and a large part of 2026 for changes to the Election Law in a way that suits HDZ.

- Čović currently has the instruments to force the Trojka to do this, by arresting their ministers, by creating certain crises, by blackmailing.

Then, together with the Trojka, they will exert pressure to change the Election Law in a way that ensures that an HDZ Croat is always in the Presidency.

And with the Election Law, he will also problematize the issue of the Central Election Commission (CEC) of BiH, wanting to have control over the CEC as well.

This will even be easier for him if Dodik is not arrested and pushes through a new constitution of Republika Srpska. Then we will find ourselves in an absurd situation where we will have two parallel CECs, everything will be parallel in BiH.

Then we will probably have a situation where SNSD will participate in both official legitimate and legal elections, and will also have its own parallel elections in that part of BiH. And we will not be able to do anything about it, he will implement his political arbitrariness there - emphasizes Muhasilović.

He is of the opinion that Čović's Election Law also suits Dodik. The privileges he will gain through it will be most felt by HDZ, but it will certainly suit Dodik as well, because it will mean the weakening of BiH through ethnic partition.

- Besides HDZ, in this whole story is also SNSD, together with the Trojka. And the Trojka is there as a flow-through heater for Čović's interests. The Trojka only gives them legitimacy among Bosniaks and makes their job easier, because they would not be able to bypass Bosniaks if they were united.

And since they also have the Trojka, I think the prospects are quite high. Now, of course, this will involve a number of technical matters, from certain constitutional changes, etc. On the one hand, they also hope that Christian Schmidt will accommodate them.

Whether Schmidt will enter into that role depends again on some other factors, on the mood of the international community. Currently, as I see it, everything is still in motion. The international community has not yet clearly stated its position on this issue.

It is very possible that with the arrival of a new guard from the USA to BiH, they will get the green light to proceed with these changes to the Election Law. And then that's the end of the story, then the Trojka can do nothing more. Their role is only to implement.

HDZ will try to get this Election Law through the hands of the Trojka. Not all the cards have fallen into place yet, but they are very close to it. If they also get the green light from the international community, then the pro-Bosnian front will have no instruments to stop it.

They can easily buy a few votes in the House of Representatives, as they have already shown, to push this through. I fear that this may be the case this time as well. And of course, they will also use their media to justify this story, to present it as nothing serious.

We have seen that certain members of the Trojka have started saying that it is not fair and just for us to elect a member of the BiH Presidency for the Croats. Namely, HDZ has gained everything. HDZ absolutely rules both the Federation and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

And the best example of this is that for months now, SNSD ministers have not been dismissed, because HDZ does not allow it. They simply have instruments to blackmail, and the Trojka has allowed them all these positions - concluded Muhasilović in an interview with NAP.

(D.K.)