Four possible scenarios in anticipation of the PIC decision: RS referendum will be linked to the issue of Mostar!?

What can be expected from today's session of the Peace Implementation Council in BiH. What will be the content of the communiqué, i.e. the conclusions?, writes the news agency Patria.

The session that was supposed to be held last week was postponed due to, as was announced then, additional consultations among ambassadors. This was the first signal that there are different positions among the member countries of the PIC Steering Board.

Russia has already stated that it is against the ban, i.e. that it supports holding the referendum on September 25, in which citizens of the smaller BiH entity should declare themselves on January 9 as the Day of RS.

The Constitutional Court of BiH issued a Decision declaring January 9 an unconstitutional holiday, with a recommendation to the authorities of the smaller BiH entity that they can mark the Day of RS but that it cannot be this date.

The USA, Great Britain and Turkey (on behalf of the OIC member countries) are categorically against the referendum.

However, it can be clearly read between the lines that some other "world powers" could side with Russia.

What could be the outcome?

It is possible that the ambassadors recommend to the authorities in RS to postpone the holding of the referendum until the Constitutional Court of BiH decides on the request for revision of the decision submitted by the National Assembly of RS and the new request of the Chairman of the Presidency of BiH, Bakir Izetbegović, who submitted a request to this judicial institution for resolving a constitutional dispute with the entity of Republika Srpska.

Izetbegović asked the Constitutional Court of BiH to issue a temporary measure suspending the application of the disputed decision of the NSRS until the final decision of the Constitutional Court of BiH on his request.

The second possible scenario is that the ambassadors decide to ban the holding of the referendum while providing additional support to High Representative Valentin Inzko for the use of Bonn powers, i.e. the possible dismissal of politicians from RS who are the organizers of the referendum.

If such a decision is made, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić has stated that he will invite politicians from RS to consultations in Belgrade.

- Through consultations in Belgrade, we must talk and consult and extract the least damage and the greatest benefit for our citizens and our people, said Vučić.

The third possible scenario is that the ambassadors decide to stay on the sidelines with the already known political cliché that it is up to domestic politicians to take responsibility for the state. In that case, the referendum would be held, and the domestic judiciary (the Prosecutor's Office and the Court of BiH) would be left to sanction, i.e. criminally prosecute those who do not respect the decision of the Constitutional Court of BiH and take unconstitutional steps.
 
The fourth possible scenario is that they decide on the well-known variant of "killing two birds with one stone".
 
That they demand from the authorities in RS to respect the decision of the Constitutional Court of BiH (no referendum), while at the same time demanding from the authorities in FBiH, primarily representatives of SDA and HDZ BiH, the urgent implementation of the decision of the Constitutional Court of FBiH which would enable the holding of elections in Mostar on October 2.

Who are the members of the PIC Steering Board

The members of the Steering Board are: France, Italy, Japan, Canada, Germany, Russia, USA, Great Britain, and the Presidency of the European Union, the European Commission and the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), represented by Turkey. The Steering Board provides political guidance to the High Representative.