Blagić: Referendum showed Dodik has far less than 50 percent support in RS

When all is said and done, the referendum in Republika Srpska showed that Milorad Dodik does not have excessive support. Although the referendum had no political opponents in parliament, nearly 50 percent of people in RS did not support the referendum. This is written by columnist of the Banja Luka portal Frontal, Stefan Blagić, reports NAP. 

- So, many people who did go to the referendum do not belong to Dodik's voter base. Dodik's support, whether he wants to admit it or not, is constantly declining... – writes Blagić. The columnist further believes that the turnout for the referendum was not expected. The turnout, he says, is much lower than could have been assumed, at least according to the pre-referendum statements of the highest officials of Republika Srpska.

- The turnout in the referendum was 55 percent, which means that almost half of the population of Republika Srpska did not respond to the politicians' call - says Blagić. He sees the reasons for the half-hearted support for Dodik's referendum in at least eight reasons:

Although a very aggressive campaign was conducted in Republika Srpska, with classic propaganda video material that appealed to the emotions of the residents, just over half of the population went to the polling stations, which is approximately the same turnout as in the elections.

On the one hand, we can say that a certain number of people (mostly Bosniaks) did not respond to the referendum... However, that is not even 14 percent of the population...

Furthermore, an important fact is that this referendum was very important for the SNSD leader Milorad Dodik, therefore he could not sit idly by, which means that many presidents of SNSD municipal boards received instructions to bring as many people as possible to vote. However they could. This statement is supported by the possible scenario in which a turnout of less than 50 percent would mean a steep fall for SNSD.

There is a possibility that people employed in institutions also received instructions that the referendum was mandatory for them too...

A very important thing is that the referendum in Republika Srpska had no political opponents, meaning that all parties in the RS parliament (except for the Domovina coalition) supported the referendum, but people stayed home regardless. This indicates, either that a portion of people considered the matter already resolved and that January 9th would receive plebiscitary support, or that people considered this to be truly "Dodik's" referendum and that it had nothing to do with ordinary life, so they decided to be passive.

A portion of the citizens of Republika Srpska also considered the referendum to be inconsistent with the BiH Constitution, because it would thus violate the decision of the Constitutional Court prohibiting the holding of the referendum. This portion was probably also afraid of possible new escalations of conflict, so the reason for staying home should be sought there.

Many people were simply uninterested, they were not too interested in the topic, because, as usual, they are concerned with matters that have little to do with politics.

The last category of "non-voters" is the category of people for whom it is not too important what will be celebrated and when. It is more important for them what they will live on, so they either worked that day, or struggled with how to survive until the 1st. Or both, but either way, they didn't see much point in going to the referendum.