Bečarević: Gas interconnections and BiH's real needs for them

(Patria) - Almir Bečarević, gas expert and former director of BH-Gas, commented on the announced opening of the conceptual design for the Županja-Orašje-Brčko-Tuzla gas pipeline.

"I don't understand what opening the conceptual design of the gas pipeline means, even after several readings of the statements by the Prime Minister of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Fadil Novalić, because a study for the construction of this gas pipeline has never, ever been prepared, especially a gasification study for the Tuzla Canton, which is the only canton in the FBiH without this type of necessary documentation for any conceptual design or gas pipeline construction.

What needs to be known, in order to see the entire absurdity of the energy policy in BiH or FBiH, I will present through data that answers the current gas consumption and the total and planned capacities of gas pipelines that are being 'targeted' wherever possible in BiH. I understand encouraging local communities in the possibilities of building infrastructure projects, but talking about international interconnections and promising something without any analysis, which has neither logical nor necessary gas consumption, means only empty talk that has no basis whatsoever," says Bečarević.

In clarification, he points out that BiH has a total gas consumption of approximately 240 million Sm3.

"For example, Croatia has over 2.5 billion Sm3, Serbia over 2.5 billion Sm3, Hungary around 10 billion Sm3, etc. The total optimistic needs for natural gas in BiH were projected by the World Bank 20 years ago and they were at the level of 1.5 billion Sm3, with the condition that part of the consumption would be directed towards electricity production. Real needs are 1.0 billion Sm3, and these forecasts were made for 2020 as well. The study exists in the relevant Ministry of Energy and BH-Gas, but it should be read," emphasizes Bečarević.

Today, in 2022, the consumption level is not 1.0 billion Sm3 but 230 million Sm3.

"Just 15 years ago, BiH consumed 380 million Sm3, and now, I repeat, 230 million Sm3. There is no trace of the projected 1.0 billion Sm3. What needs to be known is that the capacity of the existing gas pipeline is 650 million Sm3. In fact, on winter days, this capacity is insufficient for daily gas needs and, due to its age, calls into question the security of supply. Now, about gas projects in BiH.

Southern Interconnection gas pipeline, capacity 1.5 billion Sm3.

Inđija – Mačvanski Prnjavor – Bijeljina – Doboj – Banja Luka – Prijedor – Novi Grad gas pipeline, capacity 1.2 billion.

Slavonski Brod-Brod gas pipeline, constructed interconnection, capacity 1.0 billion.

Županja-Orašje-Brčko-Tuzla gas pipeline, international interconnection that cannot be less than 16 inches, capacity 1.0 billion Sm3. The total capacity of all the listed gas pipelines is 4.7 billion Sm3. The value is over 500 million euros," explains Bečarević.

Therefore, all these gas pipelines are sufficient for all the current needs of both Croatia and Serbia combined.

"BiH's needs amount to 240 million Sm3, which is 5% of the possible capacity of the aforementioned gas pipelines, or only 20% of the real projected gas needs in BiH in relation to the listed gas pipelines. This is proof that only one new international interconnection is sufficient for BiH's needs, and that is the Southern Interconnection, which is the furthest along in its realization. Explaining that the BiH market cannot even theoretically bear gas investments worth 500 million EUR is an illusion, even explaining it to 'energy strategists', because how can we explain to them that in Sarajevo, in the middle of winter, fuel oil is being used instead of natural gas. In the middle of winter, with average minus temperatures and an almost half-empty gas pipeline," says Bečarević.

It is difficult to explain to the 'energy strategists', he adds, that BiH needs the opposite and a new supply direction, not in Brod, then in Županja 65 km away, then to Bijeljina 60 km away, then to Zvornik 55 km away.

"Four international gas interconnections within a distance of 180 km. Even for the needs of the USA or Russia, it seems like a lot. This is what happens when geniuses who have no experience in the gas sector plan and are guided by political promises that the ignorant can believe, and in gas policies, this is an unserious policy worthy of a well-trained clown who, every now and then, pulls out colorful balloons. How to explain that BiH has been trying for 20 years to build at least one new interconnection, noting that only two were realistic: Brod - Zenica or Zagvozd - Travnik - Zenica - Sarajevo, and that BiH has not succeeded to this day. Hope appeared with the approval of the FBiH Parliament to proceed with the Southern Interconnection project, and instead of all efforts being directed towards this project, the discussion is now expanding with something that is not foreseen in any strategy.

Finally, as someone who has spent his working life building at least one new interconnection, I would like energy to be spent on the security of supply of the city of Sarajevo with natural gas, diversification of supply routes, and opening the market with various suppliers who do not necessarily have to be only from Russia. The Southern Interconnection provides answers to all these questions," added Bečarević.