Avdović: Washington nervously entered BiH Election Law reforms, Palmer must be replaced

(Patria) - To conclude for now - this cycle, or this episode regarding the reform of the Election Law in Bosnia and Herzegovina, has failed due to the non-acceptance of political realities in the country. Of course, all the known characteristics of BiH as a corrupt country and a country of transitional and incomplete democracy apply. However, this reform episode has also failed due to the naive belief of one wing of Joe Biden's administration - especially in the State Department - that it was possible to conclude it quickly and, what is worse, in the wrong way, precisely because of the reputation and prestige of the US President in BiH.

This is how journalist and analyst Erol Avdović characterized the failure of the first round of Election Law reforms under the patronage of the US and the EU.  

SPENDING BIDEN'S CAPITAL

- That capital has unfortunately been quite eroded in some places in Bosnia and Herzegovina, not due to Bosnia's fault - but due to the arrogant approach of the negotiators. Bosnia cannot be blamed for its "naivety" in believing the words of Biden from the 90s - as the moral credo that defined this politician at that time. Rather, the finger should be pointed at Washington's naivety, and even superficiality in its approach to electoral reforms.

WRONG PERSONNEL POLICY -

Avdović states that everything started with the wrong appointment of Matthew Palmer for this job.

"And then with the wrong analysis, that the Americans can rely on the Europeans and that they can conclude everything in a few months under the code "targeted and limited reforms", as Secretary of State Antony Blinken described it in his letter to official Sarajevo on April 1, 2021. It is incomprehensible how the Americans could be hooked and hopeful about EU bureaucratic emissaries - officials like Angelina Eichhorst, high representative for enlargement Oliver Varhelyi, but also Miroslav Lajčak - who have been engaged for years, but without visible results in the Western Balkans. With them, High Representative Christian Schmidt appears completely confused and somewhat lost", adds this journalist.

AGGRAVATING CIRCUMSTANCES

- Everything is further complicated by the transition situation in Germany and the departure of Angela Merkel, with whom the EU has almost grown together over the past 16 years. But there is also uncertainty about the presidential elections in France due to the question of whether Emmanuel Macron is leaving or staying. All this, along with objective objections from analysts - that Paris, and even Berlin, have frozen (stalled) the EU enlargement process, and that this concept is a nice story to buy time.

WRONG "DAYTON" CONCEPT

- In fact, Washington entered the electoral reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina quite nervously (because it is frustrated by the EU's non-enlargement policy). And then it played completely unprincipled and incomprehensibly on two leaders, Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović, who are politically corrupt in every way, calculating that by appeasing them, they would pressure, or even blackmail, the third party. And that is the outdated Dayton model, inadequate for the new civic awakening in BiH and the region in 2021/22.

CONFRONTING REAL, NOT BOSNIAN PROBLEMS

- Of course, America, which is increasingly turning towards the Pacific, has real economic and military - rival problems with China and Russia. And it is quite concretely focused on Ukraine and energy transit routes. As well as on the possible intervention of Russia in Ukraine. That is why Washington prefers so-called stabilocracy on the periphery of Europe, and often resorts to cooperation with Belgrade, Tirana, and even Zagreb - outside the democratic concept. There is also the confusing, sometimes pathetic narrative about democracy and human rights, as at the recent Summit for Democracy in Washington.

UNCERTAIN UNTIL THE END

- Therefore, we do not know what the second episode related to the reform of the Election Law will be, nor the urgent reforms of the judiciary in BiH. Hence, the entry of the UK (Great Britain) into the Balkan arena is understandable, justified, and welcome, precisely for security reasons, which America is trying to address by repeating the refrain - "there will be no war" (Gabriel Escobar). When the United States says that, one must hope that they are taking full responsibility for these claims.

I would only predict that Washington will soon have to redefine its engagement in Bosnia and Herzegovina - and perhaps make some quick changes in its team - as in diplomatic hockey. Stubborn insistence that Palmer is an adequate choice can further complicate the situation and strengthen mistrust in Sarajevo. We should not speculate on the rest.