Angela Merkel confident of fourth term, only coalition partner uncertain

German voters are electing a new parliament on Sunday. At the federal elections, where Chancellor Angela Merkel is seeking her fourth term, 61.5 million voters have the right to vote.

Three days before the elections, it is quite certain that the CDU/CSU coalition led by Angela Merkel will receive the most voter support, but the result achieved by the SPD is most important for the formation of the future government.

According to all relevant polls, Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats will receive between 30 and 32 percent of the votes, while support for the Social Democrats is estimated at 19 to 23 percent. The main goal of the Social Democrats is to win more than 21 percent of the votes, which would put them first in line to form a coalition with the CDU.

Greece and other indebted EU member states are rooting for a scenario where the Social Democrats win over 21 percent of the votes, because in that case, Social Democrat leader Martin Schulz, who has seriously reformed the struggling party, would have the opportunity to demand the position of Minister of Finance for himself or someone else from his party. Such a development would benefit the Greeks and the rest of Europe, who believe that a Social Democrat at the head of the strongest European economy's finance ministry would be more lenient towards them in debt repayment.

According to many Germans close to the SPD, Martin Schulz is leading the party in the right direction, and within the party, especially among the younger population, the opinion prevails that it would not be wise, regardless of the election result, to enter into a coalition, but rather to remain in opposition for the next term and continue building the party for future elections.

If the SPD is not in coalition talks, Merkel could most easily form a coalition with the Greens, but the automotive industry most opposes such a coalition, as the Greens' strongest pre-election asset is the fight against diesel polluters.

In addition to these three parties, the electoral threshold of five percent will also be crossed by the liberal FDP, which is also considered one of the potential partners for a coalition with the CDU-CSU, the radical neo-Nazi AfD (Alternative for Germany), and the radical left-wing party Die Linke (The Left). The Left currently has no intention of entering the government, nor would the CDU go with them.

The refugee crisis and the rise of Islamophobia and anti-Semitism in Germany have brought the AfD into the spotlight, the first party that could cross the electoral threshold in Germany after the fall of Adolf Hitler and achieve even double-digit voter support. Their rhetoric has forced the CDU, a center-right party, to move even closer to the center, so some in Germany jokingly call Angela Merkel the greatest Social Democratic Chancellor in the country's history.

598 deputies will enter the German parliament.