Adis Arapović: The Left Can Win 300,000 Votes, But...

The joint meeting of the main boards of SDP BiH and DF, scheduled for Saturday, brings much optimism among the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Shackled by the right and their insane programs, BiH is facing serious problems, starting from economic ones to the serious endangerment of the rule of law.

If the BiH left has the wisdom and gains the trust of voters, Bosnia and Herzegovina, like what happened in Macedonia, for example, can breathe freely again starting next year, and citizens can be freed from fear. 

According to political scientist Adis Arapović's estimates, left-wing parties can win 300,000 votes in the upcoming elections if they offer fresh ideas and unblemished faces, which would mean halting the downfall of Bosnian society, which has been sliding into increasing social stratification for two decades. 

Arapović is not just a political analyst who follows developments within Bosnia and Herzegovina. He is currently finalizing his doctoral dissertation on the topic of the political spectrum and the profile of political parties in BiH, so his analyses are highly credible.

The Left Lacks Mass Membership Attraction

However, to avoid confusion and excessive optimism without basis, Arapović says, it must be clearly stated that the left faces numerous challenges that need to be overcome.  He is personally concerned that, almost three years after the elections, and with the current government's term in its final year, the left has no strong evidence that the so-called left-wing parties have revitalized and can prepare for the 2018 elections with optimism. 

"Two facts continue to burden the main left-wing parties, SDP and DF, namely ideological and programmatic wandering, and a preserved personnel structure, i.e., the lack of mass attraction of new members and prominent figures," Arapović believes. 

When asked if he sees enough optimism due to the joint session of the main boards of SDP and DF, which at least rhetorically promises a new political era in BiH, Arapović says that the results of the local elections and recent public opinion polls on party ratings and the prospects of the left imperatively demand an alliance between these two parties, because, in his opinion, as unfinished as they may be, they are the only ones in BiH that formally strive for social democracy.

"The scattering of votes in the local elections was a joint fiasco and no one's success, and poor individual results deepened the electoral defeat by losing mandates won after the elections, with the erosion of their own ranks. Therefore, if it wants to justify its existence, the political left must become a homogeneous entity," says Arapović. 

There is No Benefit from Salon Anti-Fascism

He believes that it does not necessarily have to become one super-left party, but in any case, he says, it must be a broader alliance based on developed and proclaimed goals and programs, radically focused on class, social, and economic issues, not on salon anti-fascism and left-wing populism, which he believes has dominated their rhetoric for years. 

When he thinks about the dangers the left might encounter on its path to power and strengthening BiH society, Arapović says that social democracy can and should be the cement of this society, which has been sliding into increasing social stratification for two decades, almost to the point of class collapse, using inter-ethnic tension as a cover for theft, dismantling institutions, order, and legality, and destroying social wealth. 

The current term, he says, will now certainly end with very modest results from the ruling parties, and the dissatisfaction of the majority of citizens must be politically articulated. This means there are at least 300,000 votes that the left could win if it convinces its sympathizers to vote at all, and then to cast their vote for them. 

However, at the same time, he says, the left must be aware that votes or electoral success will not be brought by the mantra of anti-nationalism as a political, economic, social, and any other program.

"The left must offer us fresh and radical left-wing ideas, unblemished faces, and a willingness for an uncompromising reckoning with the disorder in both state and their own ranks. Do SDP and DF have the capacity for such a thing, are their animosities stronger than a statesmanlike vision, can they attract the intellectual elite, and who are the people who will carry this epochal burden, is a question that needs to be publicly asked. If there are no answers very soon, I do not rule out the real possibility of strengthening a third left-wing current, which will fill the void on the principles of social justice, solidarity, and a reckoning with the tycoon oligarchy and the emerging dynasty," Arapović believes.

"The polarization on the political map is maturing, SDA is moving to the right and with foreign sponsors, public resources, and a clientelist network, it has a strong starting position. SBB is mastering the center, its semi-positional role benefits them, and its offensive tactics widen the rift with SDA, attracting votes from the left. Only the left is in a gaseous state, only the left has not articulated its character and profile. If it does not reform in the short term, it will face a fate similar to the left in Croatia or Serbia. Thus, a marginal role, about 15 percent of mandates, another four years. If that is enough, then nothing," Arapović concludes.