Ahead of the House of Peoples session of the FBiH Parliament: Will the '1990s' succumb to HDZ pressure and sign the vital national interest for the Southern Interconnection?

(Patria) - The House of Peoples of the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina will decide on Thursday whether the Law on the Southern Interconnection, previously adopted in the House of Representatives, will enter into force. Three delegates of HDZ 1990 will have a decisive role, given that it depends on them whether the Croat Club will initiate the mechanism of vital national interest.

The HDZ opposes the proposal under which the existing federal company BH Gas would be the project holder, which would enable the diversification of gas supply.

In the House of Peoples, a simple majority is needed for the law to be adopted, and the parties that adopted it in the House of Representatives also have a majority in the House of Peoples. The HDZ is left with the option of using a veto and initiating the mechanism of vital national interest. For this, they need two-thirds of the delegates in the Croat Club, i.e., 16 out of 23.

The HDZ currently has 13 delegates in the Croat Club and cannot do this alone, requiring the support of the delegates of the '1990s'.

Before the vote in the House of Representatives on December 12, 2024, on the Proposal for the Law on the gas pipeline “Southern Interconnection Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republic of Croatia,” representatives of the HDZ and media close to this party exerted enormous pressure on the deputies of HDZ 1990 and other smaller parties to vote against.

Precisely with this goal, HDZ deputy Marijan Marjanović issued an indirect threat to all Croatian parties that do not follow HDZ policy.

“The Croats who participated in that government (Platform) ended up where they belong, mostly in prisons and history, where the Croatian people will remember them as traitors,” said Marjanović, clearly alluding to where those Croatian parties that would support the proposed law would “end up.”

Additional pressure came from a text published by Dnevnik.ba, and simultaneously carried by the Croatian Media Service (HMS), with the title “HDZ 1990 and HNP ready to hand over to BH Gas the management of a resource of vital importance for Croats?”.

“Nevertheless, with this move, HDZ 1990, HNP and HSS are entering 'slippery ground' since it is almost certain that their support in the House of Representatives of the FBiH Parliament will be interpreted as 'Croatian support' for this project, even though the fact is that HDZ BiH has an absolute majority when it comes to Croatian deputies in this Parliament. Moreover, the all-Bosniak majority can adopt this law without a single Croatian vote in the House of Representatives of the FBiH Parliament,” the text states.

Despite this, the deputies of HDZ 1990 did not vote against the law and were abstaining, thereby sending a clear message that there is no unity among Croatian national parties on this issue.

Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković tried to repair the damage after the session by speaking about unity, which in practice did not exist, because in that case all Croatian parties should have voted against.

“Unusual because not all political representatives and deputies of the Croatian people were for this project. Not only HDZ, but all parties with a Croatian prefix from HNS. Such a message, a political message from the legitimate representatives of the Croatian people, cannot be stronger. And we support them,” said Plenković.

The question arises why the delegates of HDZ 1990 would participate in initiating the mechanism of vital national interest if they were abstaining in the House of Representatives of the FBiH? If they believed that the proposed law was directed against Croats and their interests, they would undoubtedly have voted against it already in the House of Representatives.

In this regard, the representatives of HDZ 1990 are in a serious dilemma on how to vote on Thursday. If they support the initiation of the mechanism of vital national interest, they will show that they lack the political backbone to withstand the blows of the HDZ and that in just one month they are ready to vote contrary to an identical proposed law.

Nevertheless, if HDZ 1990 succumbs to pressure, the final decision will be made by the Constitutional Court of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, i.e., the Council for the Protection of Vital National Interest, which is composed of constitutional judges, and which decides on admissibility by a two-thirds majority (5 out of 7), and on the merits by a simple majority.

“The Council for the Protection of Vital National Interest at the Constitutional Court of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina decides on the admissibility of such cases by a two-thirds majority within one week, and within one month decides on the merits of cases deemed admissible,” states the FBiH Constitution.