THREES AND LETTERS The new 'parliamentary third' can neither dismiss anyone nor does it have enough votes to pass laws

By: Avdo Avdić/Istraga.ba

Have you ever heard of the government signing a coalition agreement with the opposition? And that all together they form a parliamentary minority?

The ten signatories have agreed to pass "positive laws". They will not pass negative ones yet. The signatories of the new parliamentary minority have nineteen votes in total. To change both "positive" and "negative" laws, they need 22 votes. Which means they are short three votes. And that is in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH. In the House of Peoples, when all of them take turns, the signatories of the "parliamentary minority" have four votes. Which means, half of the required eight to pass "positive" laws.

The opposition from Republika Srpska, the so-called Banja Luka trio, has pledged not to initiate the dismissal of the current Council of Ministers. Which means that the opposition, with the representatives of the government, the Sarajevo trio, has agreed that there will be no dismissals. Because SDP, NiP, Naša stranka, NES, Naprijed, BHI FK, SDS, PDP, and SZPR did not accept DF's amendment to their document, which should have stated that the signatories commit to initiating the dismissal of the current BiH Council of Ministers. Which, in a free but only accurate translation, means - the opposition Trio from Republika Srpska has pledged not to dismiss ministers Elmedin Konaković, Edin Forto, and Zukan Helez, and the Sarajevo Trio, in return, has pledged to do everything to dismiss Staša Košarac and Srđan Amidžić, who cannot be dismissed even if the two Trios gain the support of HDZ, which does not want to cooperate with them.

Here is the math.

SDP BiH has five state deputies. NiP has three. Naša stranka has two. NES has two, Naprijed only has Šemsudin Mehmedović, and Fuad Kasumović's party also has one deputy. That is a total of fourteen votes from the Federation of BiH. The Banja Luka trio has a total of five deputies, with SDS and PDP having two each, and Nebojša Vukanović's party having one. When you add it all up, you get a total of 19 votes. For "positive laws" to be passed, 22 votes are needed in the House of Representatives.

Do the two Trios have these votes? They do not. So, what is the point of talking about a new coalition? The two trios do not want to count the eight votes of SDA and the three votes of DF. They want the four votes of HDZ. Which, again, Dragan Čović - will not give without the Election Law. And the Election Law according to Dragan Čović's wishes cannot be passed without the presence of delegates from SDA, DF, and SBiH in the House of Peoples of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH.

Let's move on to the House of Peoples. The two trios, plus Zlatko Miletić, have a total of four delegates. The Sarajevo trio has only Kemal Ademović in the Club, and the opposition from RS has two in the Serb Club. In the Croat Club, among the signatories, there is only Zlatko Miletić. For any decision to be passed, eight delegates must vote for it (assuming all are present). And for a session of the House of Peoples to be held at all, there must be three Bosniaks, three Serbs, and three Croats in the hall.

In the Croat Club, HDZ has three out of five delegates. Without their presence, there is no session. In the Serb Club, SNSD has three delegates. And without their presence, there is no session. In the Bosniak Club, SDA, SBiH, and DF have four out of five delegates. However, the opposition from Republika Srpska does not want a coalition agreement with the opposition from the Federation. They want an agreement with the ruling parties from the Federation, behind whom, as Konaković said, stand "foreigners". The same ones who formed the current coalition with Dodik and Čović in the Council of Ministers of BiH.

So, what is the point of signing this platform at all?

To save Elmedin Konaković and Sabina Ćudić. Konaković to save his position and the narrative about the European path, and Sabina Ćudić to once again say before the next elections that she sent SNSD to the dustbin of history.

What are the real possibilities?

The two trios and the letters have, as we said, 19 votes in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH. If they were to initiate the dismissal of HDZ's Marinko Čavara from the position of Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, that initiative would certainly be supported by SDA and DF. And in that case, there would be enough votes to dismiss Čavara. But the Sarajevo Trio, led by Konaković, neither wants nor dares to embark on the adventure of dismissing HDZ BiH cadres. Because that would jeopardize the majority in the new Federation of BiH. And that, again, is much more important to Nermin Nikšić, the leader of SDP and Prime Minister of the Federation, than the appointment of Nebojša Vukanović as Minister of Security.

Therefore, the only thing that can be implemented in this case is the dismissal of Marinko Čavara. Everything else is a lie that serves to help Sabina Ćudić and Elmedin Konaković politically survive until the elections.