Sladić: First third of Ramadan without major heatwaves

Written by: Nedim Sladić, amateur meteorologist

First of all, I would like to wish all our readers of the Islamic faith a blessed Ramadan and that they achieve a state of peace, offer prayers to God Almighty, do as much good as possible, and that God Almighty accepts their fasting.

At the very beginning of the month of Ramadan, i.e., its first day, the weather will be mostly variably cloudy with rain and showers expected today in most parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and snow in the mountains. 

The precipitation is conditioned by the influence of a cyclonic field located slightly south of our region, and colder air is also arriving from the north in the upper-level wind current. With the strengthening of the high-pressure field, which ensures stable weather conditions, the weather will briefly stabilize on Tuesday, and moderate to increased cloudiness will prevail in the eastern and northeastern parts of Bosnia in the morning, with remnants rarely bringing very little rain, while the rest of the country will be mostly sunnier with moderate cloudiness. 

In the aforementioned east and northeast, the clouds will gradually break up towards the end of the day. It will also be slightly warmer compared to today, but still below average. Sunny weather will accompany us on Wednesday, after which a new change in weather will occur, accompanied by rain on Thursday, and it will also cool down slightly. 

Friday and Saturday will maintain variable weather with afternoon local showers, and Saturday could very easily be the prelude to a new, more pronounced and stronger cooling that would be expected on Sunday and through most of the second decade of May, but such a trend cannot yet be predicted with high probability.

The development of the cyclone in the Gulf of Genoa and its path remain a big question mark, so the situation will be monitored further.

When we talk about temperatures, morning temperatures are mostly from -1 to 6, after Wednesday from 3 to 8, and in the south of the country up to 12, while the highest air temperatures range from 4 to 9 °C today in most of Bosnia, and in the coming days mostly from 13 to 18, in the south up to 21 °C. Temperature-wise, we remain within the profile of temperatures that are below the long-term average. So, what we can say now, and with these sentences we will summarize the report, this week will be characterized by quite pleasant weather that should be favorable for many in terms of weather conditions, as fasting would be much easier due to lower temperatures than in previous years.

And, as things stand now in the forecast materials, I can say with great probability that at least through the first third of the month of Ramadan, pleasant weather without major heatwaves could prevail. At least until May 17, we are sure that southerly winds and warm air from Africa will not visit us. 

It is very likely that the popular saying, which we have all probably heard at least once, that "whatever the weather Ramadan month begins with, it will gladly last until the end," will be quite accurate this year as well, at least in its first half.