RS as an instrument of Milorad Dodik's will

(Patria) - A combination of political maneuvering, defiance, and an attempt to control the narrative.

This is how Hazim Bašić, a member of the Presidency of Krug 99, interprets the behavior of Milorad Dodik, who today, despite the verdict of the BiH Court, once again asserted that he is the president of the BiH entity RS.

Normalization of the illegal

Bašić, in an interview with the Patria News Agency (NAP), says that Dodik often consciously creates legal and institutional confusion, showing that the institutions of RS are not truly independent and functional, but rather instruments of his will.

This is, according to our interlocutor, a classic authoritarian reflex, where defiance has become a tactic of retreat.

- In the process, Dodik tries to show that he is still irreplaceable and that "there is no Republika Srpska without him," thereby reassuring his voters and intimidating his associates. None of his associates dare to notice that he has been stripped of power.

With such contradictory moves, he also tests the reactions of the international community. If no one reacts seriously, he gains additional space to continue his anti-constitutional policy. This is part of his strategy of "normalizing the illegal".

Dodik's behavior is not legally consistent, but it is politically calculated. It is a performance of power in which he signals that he is above the law, entity institutions, and logic - Bašić emphasizes.

The secessionist today once again threatened secession of the smaller BiH entity, in his reaction to a letter that the Court of BiH sent to the Central Election Commission (CEC) of BiH, stating that, in accordance with the legal consequences of his conviction, he cannot be the president of SNSD.

- When Dodik threatens secession again, it is not just a reflex, but a political ritual that has several functions. We have regularly seen the use of these threats when Dodik was faced with legal or political pressure (as now after the verdict), when he was losing political initiative, and when it was necessary to homogenize the voter base.

This is his reflex political immunity: as soon as something threatens him, he raises the issue of "defense of Republika Srpska," playing the role of "protector of the people." This is not a coincidence, but a learned pattern - whenever he loses control over real processes, he replaces them with a narrative of the entity being threatened. Such threats are rhetorically dangerous, and practically unachievable - Bašić assesses.

He emphasizes that it has been proven in practice that the entity of RS does not have the capacity to carry out so-called 'peaceful separation', especially to attempt secession with an uncertain outcome.

- It is economically dependent on the state and FBiH, legally it would bear responsibility for the destruction of the Dayton Peace Agreement, and finally, no relevant country would recognize such a move, not even Russia, because Moscow does not want an open conflict in BiH, but rather lasting instability that it can use as leverage.

Therefore, Dodik knows that he cannot achieve what he threatens, but he also has to threaten, because it is the fundamental basis of his political power - Bašić underlines.

Reflex of one man

He also commented on the recent move by the National Assembly of RS, which repealed unconstitutional conclusions and laws prohibiting the work of four state institutions on the territory of RS, for which Dodik and several other individuals are being investigated for attacking the constitutional order.

- Dodik withdraws laws, but not rhetoric. Regardless of the inflammatory rhetoric, he did obey the Court, albeit indirectly. This means that in reality, he is prepared to retreat when the consequences could be too severe, especially financial or political.

So, while publicly feigning defiance, behind the scenes he is looking for a way to survive without additional damage. Thus, Republika Srpska is no longer a system, but the reflex of one man - Bašić states.

It turns out, the NAP interlocutor continues, that the announced referendum serves Dodik as a semblance of strength, not as a real option.

- The talk about referendums has long since become a myth; he uses it as a symbol of the "will of the people," but generally does not implement it because he knows it would be legally invalid, would provoke an international reaction, and would expose the limits of his (in)ability. He uses the word referendum as a political weapon, not as a democratic tool - Bašić believes.

According to him, in recent months, citizen Dodik has threatened referendums, secession, the "end of BiH," etc., so often, but these threats no longer produce the same effect. Even his voters no longer find them convincing.

- His credibility is eroding because every unfulfilled threat weakens the fear it produces. The announced referendum will almost certainly not be held. It will be replaced by a new round of big words, accusations, and "patriotic" meetings, and Dodik will probably claim that the circumstances have changed.

Such threats are politically dangerous because they erode trust in the state and constantly shift the boundary of acceptable behavior in public space. When a threat becomes predictable, it ceases to be a threat - and a leader becomes a hostage to his own myths - Bašić noted.

Finally, we asked him how he views the newly created mess in the relationship between the Court of BiH and the CEC of BiH, and whether it is realistic that the CEC will ultimately retroactively annul SNSD's participation in the early elections for the president of RS, scheduled for November 23.

- The Court sent a letter to the CEC with an interpretation of how the verdict would be applied in practice. This means that if Dodik is banned from political activity, then he cannot lead a political party participating in the election process.

The Court is not asking for anything political, but merely for the implementation of its verdict. The Central Election Commission, according to the law, must act in accordance with the Court's verdict.

This could mean annulling the decision to certify SNSD for participation in the upcoming elections, or asking the party to appoint a new, legal representative (someone not banned from holding political office).

Most likely, the CEC will try to avoid direct confrontation, perhaps seek further clarification from the Court, thereby prolonging everything. Bosnia and Herzegovina is once again in a situation to show whether it has an institutional system in which laws apply to everyone - Bašić concludes in an interview with NAP.

(D.K.)