Putin's Visit to Kadyrov Reveals Kremlin's Concerns and Kyiv's Plans

By: Armin Sijamić

Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived in Chechnya, a Russian Caucasus republic with a predominantly Muslim population. This unusual visit by the head of state to a part of the same country shows Putin's fears and reveals the plans of Kyiv and Moscow following the incursion of the Ukrainian army into Kursk.

Analyzing how Putin has managed Russia since the beginning of this century and what transformation the country has undergone in a short time, some have said, partly in jest, that the constitution and laws apply to everyone there except for him personally and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.



To maintain this system, Putin simply avoided dealing with Chechnya publicly, while Kadyrov ruled as he saw fit. To pacify the restless Caucasus, Moscow gave Kadyrov a free hand and enormous amounts of money, with which he turned the destroyed Grozny into a modern city.

This week's arrival in Chechnya to see Kadyrov after thirteen years, a visit to a mosque and kissing the Quran, a visit to the grave of Akhmad Kadyrov - against whom he fought, applauding the underage Kadyrov who shoots a rifle, and praise for "Chechen volunteers" in Ukraine, are not an ordinary working day for Putin after his visit to Azerbaijan. Between Azerbaijan and Chechnya, Putin was in Beslan, North Ossetia, where he met mothers of children killed in the terrorist attack on a school in 2004.

Who is Putin counting on?

"As long as we have people like you, we are absolutely, absolutely invincible," Putin told Chechen fighters in Grozny. Those fighters were recently heavily defeated in the Kursk region by Ukrainian forces, and during last year's Wagner rebellion, they avoided a clash with the mercenaries.

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The Incursion of the Ukrainian Army into Russia is a Blow to Vladimir Putin's Reputation and His War Plans

By: Armin SijamićEight days ago, the Ukrainian army invaded Russia, in the Kursk region, inflicted a heavy defeat on the Russian army, dealt a blow to the prestige of the Russian state and the reputation of President Vladimir Putin. Although Ukraine has not announced a clear reason for th

Nevertheless, for relations within Russia, they are currently invincible, as they firmly hold power in that part of the country and are loyal to Putin. This is currently important for Putin, especially after he sent his former bodyguard Alexei Dyumin to Kursk to oversee the attempt to expel Ukrainian forces.

Such Putin decisions come under the scrutiny of Western media after every major Russian defeat, military or political. Then, differences within the elites are alluded to and the collapse of Putin's power is wished for. In doing so, it is often not taken into account that Putin's successor could be even more aggressive towards the West and neighbors. There are currently no indications that Putin's position has changed in recent months and that anyone could overthrow him from power at this moment. Enemies and rivals within the elites exist, but currently, Putin's faction keeps things under control.

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Putin's Biggest Opposition is Within the State Apparatus

By: Armin SijamićOver the past weekend, members of the Wagner group disobeyed the state leadership and turned their weapons on the Russian army, although their leader rejected accusations that this was an attempted coup. On that occasion, they shot down a plane, several helicop

Ukrainian Incursions and Possible Rebellions

Nevertheless, things are changing rapidly, also because Kyiv has dealt Putin heavy blows in recent weeks. The reputation of a leader who keeps everything under control has been shaken in the public eye, while tens of thousands of ethnic Russians are leaving the border strip with Ukraine.

That border strip was supposed to be the concern of the "invincible" Chechens, who were entrusted with the role of a kind of military police behind the front line and rapid response forces. In other circumstances, Putin would have asked Kadyrov and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov about the failures of their units and demanded accountability, which he did by dismissing numerous officials since the start of the aggression against Ukraine.

Kadyrov told Putin that 47,000 people have trained at his special forces military camp in Chechnya since the start of the war in Ukraine and that he has "tens of thousands" of reservists ready to fight. He also said that Putin's "foot soldier" is ready to carry out orders. Putin stated that Kyiv is "trying to destabilize" Russia and that he will "punish the criminals" and that "there can be no doubt about that."



From these words, one can see why Putin visited the Caucasus and praised the Chechen fighters. Namely, Putin is facing a shortage of experienced military formations, which he will try to use to stop Ukrainian troops in Kursk. The best Russian units in Donbas have the initiative these days and Putin wants to exploit that, i.e., he does not want to send them to Kursk.

To Kursk and the border zones with Ukraine, Putin wants to send the "invincible" Chechens, who train at Kadyrov's at state expense. In recent days, Russia has sent conscripts to Kursk and those forces, as expected, suffered a heavy defeat from experienced Ukrainian troops.

Another option Putin has at his disposal is mass mobilization, but that is unlikely because Russia lacks workers in the economy. In addition, mobilizing ethnic Russians, in the European part of Russia, especially in Moscow and St. Petersburg, breaks the narrative of a "special military operation" that the army is successfully conducting against "Ukrainian Nazis." Continuing the mobilization of minority peoples is also not a good option, because it would be expected that parts of Russia inhabited almost exclusively by Russians, which is the territory along the border with Ukraine, should be defended precisely by ethnic Russians.

The threat of rebellion by minority peoples in Russia is always present and Putin has made enormous efforts to minimize this risk. In addition to eliminating those who resisted this, Moscow has successfully implemented various socialization programs and extended a hand of cooperation. However, the risk still exists and this is one of the cards that Russia's enemies would gladly play. Even the Ukrainian army has Chechen soldiers in its ranks. Their main motive is the fall of Putin's power.



That is why Putin urgently needs to break the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, and then secure the border from new incursions. In recent days, according to reports from Russia, Ukrainian forces have attempted an incursion near Belgorod and in the Bryansk region. More Chechen soldiers along the border are part of the response to these Kyiv plans.

The Ukrainian army wants to continue with these incursions, exploiting the fact that neither side has enough soldiers to cover the entire front line. If that is the case and there is no political solution that will satisfy both sides, then the war could also come to Russian cities, while hundreds of soldiers are dying every day in battles for small towns and villages in eastern Ukraine.