New Census in BiH Not Even Mentioned: At Best by 2031, Everything Depends on Political Agreement

By Amra Vrabac

The first post-war population census in BiH was conducted in October 2013. Numerous preparations and actions preceded the census implementation, enabling its execution. Thus, in February 2012, the Law on Population, Households, and Housing in BiH was adopted in the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH.

Approximately KM 42,625,603 was needed for the census implementation (preparatory actions, census, and data publication).

The Agency for Statistics of BiH published the final and official results of the population census in June 2016. These results were disputed by Republika Srpska, which to this day refuses to use the data from the 2013 Census, although the census results were recognized by Eurostat. The best example of this is the national structure of employees in BiH institutions, where Bosniaks are imbalanced, even though the BiH Constitution prescribes proportional representation, which should be based on the last conducted census.

Recently, the opposition SDA announced that it would submit the Law on Proportional Representation to the procedure, which has caused dissatisfaction among both the HDZ and SNSD ranks. The results of the 2013 Census should be applied to all institutions, except for three state police agencies, which are still filled according to the 1991 Census.

The fact that there are still no preparations, and perhaps not even any thoughts about a new census in BiH, is shown by the fact that the parties currently participating in the government have not mentioned a new census for almost three years. The UN recommendation is to conduct population censuses every ten years.

Given that the next year is an election year, it is difficult to expect the government to agree on anything regarding the census, let alone pass a law. Considering the preparations that preceded the previous census, a new census is unlikely before 2031, and that's in the best-case scenario. Otherwise, state and entity ministries, as well as the Brčko District, participate in census activities.

A new population census in BiH would show how many inhabitants we have lost since the last census, as well as other trends that are important for every country and for planning economic, social, educational, and other policies, especially as a candidate country for European Union membership.

Today, we often hear that BiH has lost 100,000 inhabitants in the last ten years, but precise statistics still do not exist, and we can only guess about this number. But it is true that we are losing population.

What is an additional problem is that conducting a census requires a stable social situation, and in BiH, there have been significant turbulences this year alone that have disrupted the stability of the state and its institutions. No significant progress or agreement on a new census can be expected in an election year or the year after elections.

The Agency for Statistics of BiH is responsible for conducting the Census, in cooperation with the entity statistical offices. However, for now, there are no significant activities that would lead towards a new population census in BiH.

Article 8 of the Law on Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina ("Official Gazette of BiH", no. 26/2004 and 42/2004) states:

"When state bodies assess that it is necessary, the Agency shall coordinate the planning, conduct, and publication of the results of the population and household census of BiH, in accordance with the General Framework Agreement for Peace in BiH, including Annexes 7 and 10 of the Agreement".

Neighboring Croatia, an EU member since 2013, conducted its last two censuses in 2021 and previously in 2011. In Serbia, the census was conducted in 2022, and previously in 2011. The population census in Montenegro was conducted in 2023.

According to the 2013 census, 3,531,159 citizens lived in BiH, and today we can only guess how many of us actually live in BiH.