It is not wise to play with the largest economy in the EU

Interviewed by: Delvin Kovač

The authorities of Republika Srpska first went after the citizens, then the businessmen, then the media, diplomats, the opposition, and now we see them going after representatives of other countries.

Yesterday in Banja Luka, a scandal occurred, Germany was humiliated as a state, and this is something that will remain a burden and shame for both Milorad Dodik and the authorities in RS.

This was stated in an interview with the Patria News Agency (NAP) by Admir Čavalić (SBiH), a Member of the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and an economic expert.

How do you view the extremely scandalous move by the Government of RS yesterday, which, of course, did so on the direct orders of the leader of RS and SNSD, Milorad Dodik, to declare German Minister for Europe and Climate Anna Lührmann a persona non grata?

Čavalić: I believe this is a wrong political calculation by Dodik. This represents an unprecedented diplomatic scandal that remains a stumbling block for the normalization of relations between Germany and the existing authorities in the RS entity. This simply cannot be ignored in the future, regardless of the fact that the Greens will probably not be part of the new majority in Germany.

Nevertheless, a scandal has occurred, Germany has been humiliated as a state, and this is something that will remain a burden and shame for Dodik and the authorities in RS. The reality of the RS entity has been shown – that the authorities use force, act in a totalitarian manner, or, to put it layman's terms, arrogantly, without respecting human rights.

First, they went after the citizens, then the businessmen, then the media, diplomats, the opposition, and now we see them going after representatives of other countries.

The propaganda about Bosniaks, Muslims, which Dodik's daughter Gorica has been particularly spreading in recent days, is useless. All of that falls apart in the face of this scandal with the German minister.

Does the "ordinary people" in RS no longer realize that Dodik, whenever he and his close associates find themselves in serious trouble, hides behind the entity and the entire Serb people, calling all Serbs to unity and "spilling" his nationalism?

Čavalić: I think the citizens know this, but the problem is that we don't have any empirical data on this. We don't know the situation on the ground. There are no serious public opinion surveys or anything similar. Poorly attended rallies, disinterest, and general lethargy among the citizens of RS can be interpreted as an understanding of the fact that Dodik is willing to sacrifice the entity, the fate of a people, and everything else, just to politically survive. If that's the case, then it's good.

The people are politically mature. However, there is still no verification of this. Verification would occur at the very act of arrest, imprisonment, and so on. Personally, I don't think anything special would happen – a new day would dawn in the RS entity. Life, family, work, everything goes on, it doesn't stop. As a politician and professor, I allow for the possibility that I am wrong because it is difficult today to predict "the events of the people".

Fugitives from RS continue to successfully avoid facing the BiH judiciary. We have often heard in public – let the institutions, meaning the judicial ones, do their job. However, it is clear that they are not doing their job, and time is not exactly an ally to our country. What is the most realistic scenario and when, in your opinion, can we expect Dodik, Nenad Stevandić, and Radovan Višković to be brought to justice?

Čavalić: Time is on the side of Dodik and other fugitives. Institutions must react, primarily the judicial ones. I am a representative of the legislative institution of an entity, federal ministers are representatives of the executive power. It is similar at the state level.

The responsibilities are known, and there is no need to engage in political populism at this moment by promising citizens actions that are not realistically feasible. What does a TikTok video, a picture with a rifle, mean to citizens now if there is nothing behind it? It is even counterproductive because it creates a wrong image and shifts responsibility away from the institutions.

It is clearly known who should act and who has the responsibility, after all, who is paid for their (in)action. Do we need international support for this? Probably yes.

The other day I was passing through the Rača border crossing. There are no ramps, confusing signage, honest people working there, but it is evident that they do not have sufficient capacity to enforce order and possibly carry out other actions against Dodik that we all expect. We must be aware of this. This is the result of years of institutional collapse. Everything, sooner or later, comes due.

Nevertheless, there is no giving up in terms of "normalizing relations". Dodik has broken the laws of this country and must be held accountable for it. Institutions are there to sanction him. There is no alternative scenario. For us, the lesson is that we need to build institutions, especially inclusive ones, not extractive and politically captured ones.

Your comment – from an economic perspective – why is Dodik exposing RS to economic sanctions from the strongest European economy? Is he unaware that after such a diplomatic scandal, many projects financed by Germany in RS could be suspended? Or perhaps he sees an alternative in a few rare countries in the world where he still has support for his secessionism?

Čavalić: This is already happening due to German sanctions. Citizens and businessmen of RS are losing out on numerous projects, investments, and so on. Regardless of the fact that Germany is currently in recession, it is not wise to play with the largest economy in the EU. Both politically and economically.

I don't see an alternative to Germany, at least in the short term. Russia does not have that economic potential, nor the interest, and sanctions are a separate issue. China, on the other hand, requires certain guarantees, e.g., in the form of resolving the issue of state property. As we know, we are particularly far from that now.