NATO and BiH: Citizens More Aware of Geopolitical Trends than Politicians

(Patria) - The Center for Security Studies (CSS) conducted a survey of citizens' attitudes towards NATO from September 15 to 22, 2025.

The research was carried out via an online questionnaire, conducted throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina, with a sample of 601 respondents.

Men make up 83% of respondents, women 14%, while 3% did not declare their gender. 64% of respondents are from the Federation of BiH, 25% from the Republika Srpska, 3% from the Brčko District of BiH, and 8% did not declare their place of residence.

Regarding age, the largest percentage of respondents, 45%, belong to the 18-35 age group, followed by those aged 36-49 (26%). Nearly a quarter of respondents (24%) are aged 50-64, and the smallest group is those over 65 (5%).

To the first question, "Can BiH be long-term secure without full NATO membership?", the largest percentage of respondents, 53%, stated that this is not possible. On the other hand, 40% of respondents believe the opposite, i.e., that BiH can be long-term secure without full NATO membership. Only 7% did not know how to answer this question.

The second question, "Do you think there is a better guarantee for peace and security for citizens in BiH than NATO membership?", shows a similar distribution of answers. 43% answered affirmatively, while 51% believe there is no better guarantee than NATO for peace and security in BiH. 5% of respondents did not know or did not want to answer this question.

The third question in the survey concerned budget allocations for the Armed Forces of BiH and read: "Do you support the increase in military funding proposed by the BiH Presidency?". The majority of respondents, 63%, support the proposal of the BiH Presidency. One-third of respondents do not support this proposal, while 4% did not answer this question.

The last, fourth question was: "What do you think is most important for the security of citizens in the future?". Among several offered answers, the most respondents, 38%, chose NATO membership as the most important for the security of citizens in the future. They are followed by 22% who believe that EU membership is most important. In third place, nearly a fifth of respondents (19%) consider BiH's neutrality as the most important approach for the security of citizens in the future, while 13% believe it is regional cooperation. 7% of respondents think it could be some other military alliance. This question had the fewest respondents who did not provide an answer, at 1%.

The survey findings clearly confirm that security issues are at the very center of interest, but also of socio-political dilemmas in BiH. A similar trend is recorded in surveys conducted by the EU, whose citizens expressed the greatest concern in the domain of security and stability.

Although there is a non-negligible percentage of citizens who prefer alternative models, such as neutrality or some other military alliance, the majority of respondents recognize NATO membership, i.e., Euro-Atlantic integration, as a key prerequisite for long-term security.

From the CSS, they assume that such attitudes have been influenced by the broad and demanding debates taking place within NATO member states about the future and significance of NATO's survival in its current format, despite contemporary challenges.

Such attitudes gain particular importance at a time when BiH is experiencing stagnation on the EU, and especially the NATO path, faced with deep internal political divisions and exposed to an increasingly complex regional and global security environment.

By expressing support for increasing the military budget, in line with international trends and commitments, one gets the impression that citizens are more aware of the tectonic shifts in the international order than the political elites in BiH are.

The symbolic increase in the budget of the Ministry of Defense of BiH has sparked a flurry of conflicting views within political circles, and the percentage of BiH citizens who show understanding for such a decision indicates that they are in solidarity with their Euro-Atlantic friends who believe that challenging times require difficult and courageous decisions.

Additional value to the research results is given by the fact that the majority of respondents belong to the younger and productively active category of the population, oriented towards the future, which should be a clear and unambiguous signal to all political actors in BiH. In this sense, public opinion should not be understood as a mere reflection of citizens' perceptions at a given moment, but must represent a strategic imperative for decision-makers.

The question of the country's security orientation, which long-term determines the international position of BiH, must not be left solely to politicians who seem more oriented towards the past than the future. The clear commitment of citizens, especially the young, i.e., their understanding, wisdom, and determination in expressing their views, must be a guide and a clear signpost for those who have been entrusted by these same citizens to manage the country on their behalf," the CSS stated.