Muhasilović: If a ceasefire in Gaza happens under these circumstances, Israel has lost the war

(Patria) - As long as we have an aggressive Israel, there will be no peace in that part of the world, says Muhasilović
There is more and more talk these days about a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and an exchange of prisoners between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas.

The agreement is 'almost ready' and could be signed by Friday, Palestinian sources said. Israel's security cabinet is expected to meet today to approve a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and an exchange of prisoners with Hamas, Israeli public broadcaster KAN reported yesterday.

In the genocidal war in Gaza, the Israeli army has killed nearly 46,600 people since October 7, 2023, mostly women and children, despite a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire.

We remind that the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.

Israel is also facing a genocide charge before the International Court of Justice for the war in the enclave.
What to expect regarding the signing of a ceasefire in Gaza soon, what it would mean for Palestinians, and what Israel's goals are, Professor of International Relations Jahja Muhasilović spoke about for Hayat.ba.

- It is good that a ceasefire happens, it does not mean that negotiations will end quickly. Previous examples show that negotiations can last for several years. It probably won't last that long now, but one should not expect an agreement to be reached quickly. Israel currently has maximalist, unrealistic demands. If it truly wants a ceasefire, it will have to reduce its initial demands and meet Hamas halfway. If a ceasefire happens under these circumstances, Israel has lost the war, even though it has inflicted much damage on Palestinians and Hamas. It has lost for several reasons. Its already thin reputation has been tarnished, more and more countries are turning against supporting Israel, Israel has fewer and fewer allies on its side, even in the US, after a popular uprising against what Israel is doing in Palestine and American support for Israelis – says Muhasilović.

He is of the opinion that Israel is losing more and more allies and that it is very questionable whether it will have allies in the newly elected US president Donald Trump, given his recent statements.

- A change has definitely begun in the US as well. Besides its tarnished reputation, Israel has not achieved what it wanted on the ground. It has not destroyed Hamas as it said at the beginning, Hamas has survived. They don't know what to do with northern Gaza. They have not come up with a political solution for Gaza, other than killing a very large number of civilians. They do not have a model by which they would normalize the situation in Gaza, whether it means annexation or occupation, they do not have a clear plan. Israel is in a hurry at the moment, because its reputation is deteriorating day by day. They are losing a lot of soldiers, perhaps more than they expected. On the one hand, they are in a hurry, and they have not achieved any of their goals, and they are in a difficult situation. They will probably drag out the negotiations. They probably wanted to send a message to the world that they are for a ceasefire, although they show no signs of it, but with that message they are probably buying time on the ground where things are not going as planned – says Muhasilović.

Speaking about what the Palestinian people can expect in case of a ceasefire, Muhasilović reminds that Israel long ago rejected the two-state solution where a Palestinian state would be created within the borders of Gaza and the West Bank, and Israel would have what it took until 1967.

- Israel wants the entire Gaza Strip and the West Bank, they have been behaving as occupiers for years, building illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank. As long as we have an aggressive Israel, which does not respect the circumstances in the region or its neighbors, I fear that there will be no peace in that part of the world. Palestinians are also not in an enviable position, and they are much worse off than they were before October 7. Gaza is all destroyed, almost 50,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have been killed. That Israeli grip has tightened even more after October 7. It is difficult to resolve that situation in the foreseeable future. As things stand, Palestinians will continue to suffer the agony that Israel constantly inflicts on them for a long time – states Muhasilović for Hayat.ba.

Israel also used the fall of the regime in Syria to enter that country. Israel illegally occupied parts of the Golan Heights during the Six-Day War in 1967.

Muhasilović says that Israel has shown that it can wage war on multiple fronts. He adds that it works in their favor that the Syrian government has nothing to respond to Israel with.

- Because when the Assad regime fell, the first thing Israel did was bomb all military facilities during that power transition. The Syrian government no longer has anything to respond to Israel with. They expect to deepen the Golan Heights 14 kilometers into Syrian territory, although the Golan Heights itself is Syrian territory under international law and is illegally occupied by Israel. From their behavior in Syria, it is clear that Israel's ambition is not only to occupy Palestine but to expand into the entire Middle East, which includes, in addition to the Golan Heights, a buffer zone they are building in Syria, as well as a part of Lebanon up to Beirut. They have also been present there and enter that territory every now and then under the pretext of fighting Hezbollah. They are probably counting on annexing that territory in the long run. Israel is an expansionist state that, due to the increasing influx of diaspora in the world, it is estimated that there are about 30-40 million people who have the right to an Israeli passport if they express a desire for it, is under pressure to constantly conquer territory in order to settle these people in the Middle East – explains Muhasilović.

The circumstances in recent years have aligned for Israel, after the Arab Spring, however, as our interlocutor says, this causes enormous anger in the world, which has probably never been expressed towards Israel to this extent, even in those societies and countries that were considered close allies of Israel.

- If Israel continues to aggressively grab territories in the Middle East like this, it will probably hit a wall quickly and lose its allies – concludes Muhasilović for Hayat.ba.