Coalition 'Pod lupom': We cannot confirm the winner of the elections in RS with certainty

(Patria) - The preliminary assessment of election day by the Coalition "Pod lupom" for the early elections for the president of RS is that election day mostly proceeded in accordance with legal rules and prescribed procedures.

However, the Coalition warns that the findings from observing election day indicate that situations where the legal framework and procedural norms were not fully respected still exist.

A small number of irregularities could, in isolated situations, affect the election results at the level of individual polling stations. These findings can be significant, considering the close electoral race between two candidates for the position of president of RS, and the Coalition cannot confirm the winner of the electoral race with certainty.

The preliminary assessment of election day confirms that reliable voting results and an election day free from proven electoral theft and fraud are possible only with the full implementation of new technologies in elections, namely electronic voter identification and ballot scanners.

Therefore, the Coalition "Pod lupom" calls on all competent institutions to actively focus on introducing new technologies in elections in BiH in the coming period.

The Coalition processed the voting results for the president of RS on a statistically representative sample of polling stations (so-called PVT). This method allows for independent reporting of election results and validation of voting results, which is particularly important in the context of public trust in the electoral process.

The election results are as follows:
‣ Dragan Đokanović (Alliance for New Politics) - 0.5 percent, with a margin of error of +/- 0.08 percent;
‣ Branko Blanuša (SDS) - 48.9 percent, with a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percent;
‣ Igor Gašević (independent candidate) - 0.3 percent, with a margin of error of +/- 0.05 percent;
‣ Siniša Karan (SNSD) - 49.6 percent, with a margin of error of +/- 1.50 percent;
‣ Slavko Dragičević (independent candidate) - 0.3 percent, with a margin of error of +/- 0.04 percent; and
‣ Nikola Lazarević (Ecological Party of RS) - 0.4 percent, with a margin of error of +/- 0.07 percent.

The election results collected by observers of the Coalition "Pod lupom" are in line with the results published by the Central Election Commission (CEC) of BiH.

The difference between the two leading candidates in the elections is 0.7 percent and is within the margin of statistical error, which for the leading candidates is ±1.5 percent. Therefore, the Coalition "Pod lupom", in accordance with the methodology it applies, cannot confirm the winner of the electoral race with certainty.

Last night's preliminary results from the CEC show the following election results: Dragan Đokanović (0.43 percent), Branko Blanuša (48.37 percent), Igor Gašević (0.30 percent), Siniša Karan (50.30 percent), Slavko Dragičević (0.23 percent), and Nikola Lazarević (0.37 percent).

Both sources (PVT "Pod lupom" and preliminary CEC) indicate a close race between the two candidates who dominated the public space and the election campaign.

The Coalition "Pod lupom" also monitors information on voter turnout in the elections. The recorded turnout in the early elections is 35.80 percent, with a margin of statistical error of +/- 1.3 percent at a 0.95 percent confidence interval.

For comparison, the turnout in the previous General Elections in 2022 in RS was 53 percent. This indicates that the turnout in these elections has decreased by almost a third, meaning almost 200,000 fewer citizens voted.

This is the lowest recorded turnout for higher levels of government in elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Only lower turnout was recorded in certain municipalities and cities in local elections.

According to the latest information from the CEC, 443,472 voters or 35.78 percent voted at regular polling stations.

The deviation in the recorded results of turnout monitoring is practically zero. This confirms that the independent data of the Coalition "Pod lupom" is precise and reliable, and that both sources speak of the same, very low, turnout.

There are several factors that could have influenced the lower turnout, from these elections not being regular ones that voters are accustomed to, to adverse weather conditions, i.e., snowfall that affected BiH in the days before election day, to citizens' distrust in the electoral process and politicians.

Without additional and extensive research, it is not possible to precisely determine the reasons for the low turnout, and the presented factors represent estimates based on past experiences and observed trends.

The Coalition "Pod lupom" recorded a total of 32 more serious forms of electoral irregularities, and on election day, it received 14 reports from citizens related to violations of the election silence, pressure on voters (vote buying, persuasion to vote), complaints about the voting process, party propaganda material around polling stations, etc., announced the Coalition "Pod lupom".