ISW REPORT - Russians advance, Ukraine's prospects look bleak

(Patria) - The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published late last night an unprecedented detailed analysis of the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine, following months of fighting for the key city of Avdiivka.

Namely, if Avdiivka falls, it was said months earlier, it would be the first Russian step towards conquering the entire Donbas.

And indeed, the new map published by the ISW, after the capture of Avdiivka, shows that the Russians are advancing from all sides and that Ukraine's prospects look bleak without significant Western aid.

Russian forces are conducting a cohesive multi-axis offensive operation in pursuit of an operationally significant objective for almost the first time in over a year and a half. The prospects of this offensive in the Kharkiv-Luhansk sector are far from clear, but its initial execution marks a significant shift in the Russian operational-level approach.

Russian efforts to capture relatively small towns and villages in eastern Ukraine since the spring of 2022 have not secured operationally significant gains, although these operations have led to large-scale fighting and significant Ukrainian and Russian losses.

Russian forces pursued more significant objectives during their winter-spring 2023 offensive, but that push was also poorly conceived and executed, and its failure to achieve any significant progress precludes drawing firm conclusions about its planned objectives.

However, the current Russian offensive campaign is unfolding along as many as four axes, from north to south:

1) around Kupiansk and Synkivka;

2) from Tabaivka towards Kruhliakivka;

3) from Makiivka towards Raihorodka and/or Borova; and

4) from near Kreminna to Drobysheve and/or Lyman;

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, Robotyne, and Krynky. https://t.co/KY70PoEK8v https://t.co/6S2CAhnvtO pic.twitter.com/HsgiLXpaGc

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) February 22, 2024

"Russian attacks up to this point have generally either concentrated large masses of troops against single objectives (such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka) or consisted of multiple attacks along axes of advance that were too far apart to mutually support each other.

The current Russian offensive in the Kharkiv-Luhansk sector, in contrast, involves attacks along four parallel axes that mutually support each other in pursuit of multiple objectives that, taken together, would likely create operationally significant gains.

The design of this offensive operation is worthy of careful consideration regardless of its outcome as a possible example of the Russian command's ability to learn and improve upon its previous failures at the operational level.

It appears, however, that Russian tactical performance in this sector has not materially improved relative to previous Russian tactical shortcomings, a factor that could lead to the overall failure of even this better-conceived undertaking," the ISW points out in its extensive analysis.

It adds that the Russian Western Grouping of Forces has recently intensified operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and is focused on four axes of advance.

"Russian forces are currently conducting offensive operations northeast of Kupiansk, northwest of Svatove, southwest of Svatove, and west of Kreminna. The Russian Western Grouping of Forces (WMD) has been responsible for much of the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis since the front stabilized after Ukraine's successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast in the fall of 2022," it states.

It is noted that the Central Grouping of Forces had responsibility for the southern part of this axis towards Lyman between fall 2022 and fall 2023, but the Western Grouping now appears to have assumed responsibility for the northern part of the Lyman direction after the Russian command transferred significant elements of the Central Grouping to support offensive efforts to capture Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast in early October 2023.

It also recalls that the WMD's 6th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army continued localized offensive efforts northeast of Kupiansk on October 6, 2023, and sporadically intensified operations elsewhere in the Kupiansk direction. However, this localized Russian offensive effort to advance towards Kupiansk from the northeast resulted in only marginal tactical gains by January 2024.

"Ukrainian officials began reporting with increasing frequency over the past month that Russian forces are setting conditions for a larger offensive effort in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions. Elements of the WMD began intensifying operations along four axes of advance along the line in early January, and Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov announced that Russian winter-spring efforts on the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis are underway," the ISW states, concluding that Russia's ability to conduct operationally significant offensive efforts still largely depends on the level of Western support for Ukraine.

Western Aid

"Well-supplied Ukrainian forces with superior capabilities have previously prevented Russian forces from achieving even marginal gains during major Russian offensive efforts and have proven effective in causing lasting degradation of Russian logistics and combat capabilities.

Ukraine's current capabilities deny Russian forces the ability to maneuver necessary to conduct operationally significant advances, but many of these capabilities rely on key systems and materiel from the West, particularly the United States.

The West has yet to provide Ukraine with certain capabilities that could enable Ukrainian forces to further limit Russia's ability to continue operationally significant advances, particularly long-range strike capabilities that could degrade Russian logistics in depth and attack aircraft that could contest Russian air force operations.

Ukraine is attempting to rapidly expand its defense industrial base to produce many of these capabilities itself, and Ukrainian forces are also developing technological innovations and adaptations aimed at offsetting Russian advantages in manpower and materiel.

These Ukrainian efforts will take time to produce large results, and Russian forces will use that time to improve their own capabilities and conduct potentially significant offensive operations such as their ongoing operation to reach the Oskil River line.

Delays in Western aid have forced Ukrainian forces to ration their equipment and created uncertainty in Ukrainian operational planning, a vulnerability that Russian forces will increasingly exploit to facilitate gains on the battlefield.

Ukraine's ability to defend itself in the long term depends on its ability not only to prevent Russian forces from capturing operationally significant territory but also to launch successful counteroffensive operations to liberate strategically vital areas. Ukraine's ability to seize and maintain the initiative across the entire battlefield and liberate territory is a sure way to deny Russian forces the opportunity to achieve strategically significant gains in Ukraine. Ukraine therefore needs security assistance that enables it to prevent ongoing Russian efforts to achieve operationally significant gains while also preparing for its own operations that can liberate further Ukrainian territory," concludes the ISW, as reported by Jutarnji list.