Between Relaxation and Antagonisation: Kovačević's Candidacy a Cold Calculation in the Fight Against Zagreb's Aggression

There are two completely diametrically opposed views regarding the candidacy of Slaven Kovačević for the member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, that is, two completely opposite forecasts regarding Kovačević's possible result, presented in public over the past few days.

The correspondent of HINA from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ranko Mavrak, stated that Slaven Kovačević has no realistic chances of winning the upcoming elections, while political analyst and commentator Haris Imamović assessed that Slaven Kovačević will sweep the HDZ candidate and the candidate of the Quintet in the next elections.

“I personally do not believe that Slaven Kovačević has any realistic chances, in this story, to emerge as someone who will appear as a serious candidate. The fact that supports this is that on the Bosniak side, from which this electoral pool was partly drawn, you again have a clash of two extremely strong candidates, namely Denis Bećirović and Bakir Izetbegović,” Mavrak said for BHRT.

"In any case, this is an additional reason for the entire Bosniak electorate to somehow focus on these two candidates and not interfere in the election of the member of the Presidency of BiH from the Croatian people," said Mavrak.

Haris Imamović, commenting on the outvoting of Zijad Krnjić as the Bosniak representative in the Indirect Taxation Authority by the Croatian-Serbian bloc, stated that because of all this, Kovačević will triumph in the elections.

“Slaven will sweep them, because Bosniaks are in such a situation that they no longer watch, and now wherever space opens up, this mandate will have to be returned, compensated. It cannot be compensated by Dragan Čović coming out and saying, sorry, and we say, okay Dragan, thank you for apologizing, we will forget everything. We will not forget, first we will even things out a little, and then we will play by those rules. God willing, the Bosniak member of the Presidency will not be this Bećirović, but Slaven will be there, and then we play by those rules,” said Imamović.

As can be seen from the above, these are two completely opposite impressions. Mavrak's impression aims to demotivate voters of the pro-civic orientation, while Imamović, on the other hand, calls for the mobilization of pro-civic voters.

The reality, however, is most likely somewhere between the extremes highlighted by Mavrak and Imamović. In the race for the member of the Presidency of BiH from the Croatian people, every vote will be important.

However, this race is not a choice between different personalities, but a choice between two different concepts, symbolized on one side by Filipović and Lučić and on the other by Kovačević.

From the camp of Zdenko Lučić, they announce the renewal of the criminal para-state entity of the so-called Herzeg-Bosnia.

“The Croatian people in Herzeg-Bosnia are experiencing a democratic renaissance that Komšić and Kovačević cannot stop,” says Lučić's associate Tvrtko Milović.

Croatian nationalists, of course, do not have the strength to renew the criminal para-state entity, despite their strong desire for it. Nevertheless, the possibility that the policy of the Joint Criminal Enterprise finds its way into the Presidency of BiH is not without its chances.

Given the alignment of the policy of official Zagreb, which stands behind Lučić's candidacy, with the Serbian policy of breaking up Bosnia and Herzegovina that has been ongoing for three decades, it is clear to anyone even remotely reasonable what kind of situation such a balance of power in the Presidency of BiH could lead Bosnia and Herzegovina into.

The only one who can prevent such a scenario at this moment is Slaven Kovačević.

Therefore, for a citizen of Bosnia and Herzegovina who is loyal to its statehood, the question is not whether Slaven Kovačević has realistic chances or not, nor is it the question whether Kovačević will sweep or not. Kovačević's election is a test of political awareness of the importance of a pro-state ratio in the highest institution of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Since official Belgrade, through the member of the Presidency of BiH from the RS entity, realizes its power within Bosnia and Herzegovina, official Zagreb, through the member of the Presidency of BiH from the Croatian people, seeks to obtain the same opportunity, because the gifted management of the Federation of BiH, through imposed decisions of the High Representative, is apparently not enough. Complete control over the sovereignty of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina is desired.

In circumstances where there are two members of the Presidency of BiH, one of whom answers to Belgrade and the other to Zagreb, the third, the Bosniak one, could only play the role of a flowerpot that the aforementioned two can throw out the window whenever they wish.

The question of the election of Slaven Kovačević to the position of member of the Presidency of BiH therefore has nothing to do with current relations, angers, relaxations and antagonisations, as is usually presented. It is a cold calculation and the minimum necessary to preserve the right to the existence of the state in this historical epoch.

(M.T.)