Izetbegović uses the "Trojka's" fear of losing the HDZ: Will the BiH Presidency be handed over?

(Patria) - "They see that the devil has taken the joke now, they are starting to play a serious, stabilizing role. If it stays like this with the messages Čović is sending, with the messages Radman conveyed to me... Croats could act as a stabilizing force in BiH," said SDA President Bakir Izetbegović in an interview for MTV Igman, speaking about the positioning of the HDZ and Dragan Čović regarding the political crisis caused by Milorad Dodik's attacks on the constitutional order.

This affirmative stance by Izetbegović on Croatian politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina came after a long pause during which the relations between SDA and HDZ were significantly strained due to the expulsion of SDA from power.

Therefore, as Croats say, it is evident that things are gradually beginning to change in the relations between SDA and HDZ, with a tendency to renew and re-establish old and good, mostly friendly relations.

Undoubtedly, Izetbegović correctly assesses that after the 2026 elections, it will be difficult or almost impossible to form a government without the HDZ, so in order to foster a relaxing political environment, he praises the supposedly new HDZ approach to Dodik's attack on the constitutional order.

It is clear that Izetbegović himself does not believe his own words when he speaks of the stabilizing role of Croats, i.e., the HDZ and Čović, yet Izetbegović utters them in order to open a new chapter in relations with the HDZ, and to regain the position to share power with the HDZ in the Federation of BiH and at the state level.

However, Izetbegović's "praise for Croats" also has a tactical dimension that particularly disturbs the leaders of the "Trojka" (Coalition of Three parties).

Namely, it is evident that Izetbegović, on the eve of a new HDZ offensive (which this time should result in handing over the BiH Presidency through amendments to the Constitution and the Election Law, into the hands of HDZ BiH), is now trying to get closer to the HDZ from the opposition. Hence the meaningless and unfounded praise for Croats.

The tactical goal of this attempt to renew good relations is to push the leaders of the "Trojka" towards the ultimate betrayal of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Izetbegović skillfully uses the fear of the "Trojka" leaders of the possibility of the HDZ abandoning cooperation with the "Trojka", thereby effectively forcing the "Trojka" to commit the ultimate betrayal, i.e., to hand over the BiH Presidency into the hands of HDZ BiH.

By pushing the "Trojka" towards betraying the state, Izetbegović is doing exactly what Elmedin Konaković did to him during the negotiations in Neum, offering various models of betrayal at the negotiations, or what Fahrudin Radončić did to Izetbegović by encouraging him to concede, or what various "magazinovići" did to Izetbegović by spreading rumors in advance that Izetbegović had decided to betray the state in Neum.

However, the question arises as to why Izetbegović is now luring the "Trojka" into sin, i.e., betrayal. The reasons are entirely pragmatic!

Namely, if the "Trojka", terrified by the possible renewal of good relations between Izetbegović and the HDZ, rushes into betrayal and hands over the election law in order to preserve power, both now and after the 2026 elections, and they can only preserve it if they maintain the favor of the HDZ and Dragan Čović, this brutal betrayal by the "Trojka" will bring the Party of Democratic Action a historic victory in the next elections. And not only that.

This forced betrayal by the "Trojka", which Izetbegović wisely lures its leaders into, will mean a clear situation for him and the SDA after the 2026 elections.

Because when the "Trojka" completes this unpleasant task of ultimate betrayal, which Izetbegović and the SDA were suspected of committing for years (and did not, despite numerous arm-twisting and foreign pressures), the SDA will be able to enter the establishment of new political relations and government after 2026 completely unburdened.

In such circumstances, it would not be the SDA that betrayed the state and carried out its ethnic division, but its bitter political enemies who spent years lying that they were fighting against ethnic divisions.

Besides all that, the SDA thus remains clean before the patriotic and, in general, the civic public. Not only clean, but also an example of moral orientation for the faltering "Trojka" parties and their leaders who would bear the mark of betrayal on their faces.

In such a scenario, the SDA leader remains clean before the leader of the Democratic Front, Željko Komšić, because in that case, Izetbegović is again not the one who betrayed either him or the state.

It would be a perfect revenge by Izetbegović on the leaders of the "Trojka" for all the public humiliations he has endured in previous years. The only thing Izetbegović needs to do is to improve relations with the HDZ as much as possible. The closer Izetbegović gets to the HDZ, the more willing the "Trojka" will be to hand over what Čović is asking for.

Whether the "Trojka" will betray the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina and provide a peaceful political haven for Dragan Čović and Bakir Izetbegović remains to be seen. If the expressed ambition of one of the "Trojka" leaders to take (steal) everything they can in this mandate is any indication, things are quite clear.

(M.T.)