Bosnia and Herzegovina's institutions must react urgently, otherwise we face an open Cypriot scenario

(Patria) - The Central Election Commission (CEC) of BiH must follow the instructions of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina and within 15 days, Milorad Dodik must be stripped of his mandate and early elections for the president of RS must be called.

This was stated in an interview with the Patria News Agency (NAP) by Jahja Muhasilović, professor of international relations and geopolitics at the International University of Sarajevo.

Although the focus and responsibility are now primarily on the CEC, Muhasilović reminds that the president of RS, Milorad Dodik, who was sentenced by the Court of BiH to one year in prison and six years of being banned from political activity, has announced that he will not respect the CEC's decisions.

- And then the responsibility falls again on the security institutions in BiH. Because if Dodik refuses to obey the CEC and relinquish his mandate, the question arises whether the security services will be able to arrest him for openly disrespecting the Constitution and the Election Law of BiH - emphasizes Muhasilović.

He believes that Dodik will try to push some of his parallelism, considering that the National Assembly of RS adopted the Election Law of RS in April last year, based on which Dodik plans to hold parallel elections in RS.

- And if he were to go in that direction, the state security institutions are primarily at stake. There are two possible outcomes: either they will decide to arrest him and enforce the verdict of the Court of BiH, or we will again have what we had in the spring when state institutions were paralyzed.

If Dodik ultimately ignores the decisions of both the Court of BiH and the CEC of BiH, the only thing left is for the security institutions to arrest him, by force if necessary, so it will be another big test for the state - says Muhasilović.

He also points out that it will be interesting to see if the rest of SNSD, as well as opposition parties from Republika Srpska, will follow Dodik in his intentions.

- It would be best if they did not follow him because he would then be politically isolated and it would be much easier for state institutions to do their job. On the other hand, state institutions, if they calculate, as was the case in the spring, I fear that nothing will come of it and that he will continue to do what he has been doing - notes Muhasilović.

He also says that the question of what will happen with the 2026 elections arises by itself - whether Dodik will even be able to run for another term. And the CEC, adds Muhasilović, will probably not allow him that, given that it must follow the verdict of the Court of BiH.

- If other Serb parties supported Dodik in his parallelism and parallel elections, it would be a defeat for BiH because we would then *de facto* have elections that are unconstitutional and that do not go through the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but primarily through the CEC of BiH, but through some entity CEC and some parallel institutions.

And that would *de facto* be an open Cypriot scenario for Bosnia and Herzegovina. And precisely for this reason, it is very important that the CEC and other institutions, primarily security ones, react in the coming days - emphasizes Muhasilović.

He reminds us that we had that negative experience in the spring, when we could see that state institutions were infiltrated by SNSD cadres who listen to Dodik, not the judicial instances of BiH.

- That is indeed a serious problem, and I hope it will not continue this time - says Muhasilović.

The outcome in the case of Milorad Dodik, he continues, can be decided by the rest of the Serb political scene - if they decide not to follow him, he will then be isolated and it will be much easier for BiH institutions to react.

- And we saw that Aleksandar Vučić was not very enthusiastic about Dodik, it seems he has let him down a bit. If that is the case, it would be excellent. This is of course only possible in agreement with international actors, primarily the British, given that they are the most active regarding Dodik at the moment, along with the European Commission.

This is a perfect momentum - it's vacation season, Dodik doesn't have Vučić's open support, and the opposition has not yet consolidated around him. For this reason, action must be taken as quickly as possible.

Any delay or waiting until September, October, and other months will only give Dodik room to get away with it and will buy him time and possibly lead to some public amnesia where he can continue with all his policies - says Muhasilović.

At this moment, Dodik must not dare to secede the RS entity because the international circumstances are not favorable for such a move - he adds.

- I am not even sure that Serbia would support something like that. Serbia might have the will, but it has neither the capacity nor the means to implement it, given that the international community is not at all enthusiastic about such a scenario, especially if we consider that there are many crisis hotspots that are out of control, from Ukraine, Gaza, Syria...

There are more serious hotspots than Bosnia and Herzegovina, and I think the international order will not allow something similar to happen here. On the other hand, the feasibility of an independent RS entity is very questionable because it probably could not survive economically.

I think Milorad Dodik at this moment, apart from rhetorically maintaining that stance, has neither the courage nor the support for something like that, and I don't believe he will go in that direction.

And what can perhaps be expected, if the situation, conditionally speaking, becomes too difficult for Serb politics in BiH, is that they might give up on Dodik. And I think that is a cheaper scenario for them too - to give up on Dodik and allow for certain internal changes in SNSD.

Of course, Dodik's fall would also open up space for the opposition in RS, which, if it is smart, would let Dodik go and that would open up huge political space for them to also become a relevant factor in RS and on the BiH political scene.

In this way, the opposition in RS could also decide Dodik's fate. Because if there is a renewed consolidation of Serb politics around him and his SNSD, it would only continue his hegemony and parallelism, which ultimately harms them the most.

And all that Dodik has done so far has harmed the Republika Srpska entity, Bosnian Serbs, and their political options the most - concludes Muhasilović in an interview with NAP.

(D.K.)