
Written by: Muamer Bandić
The adoption of the Law on Non-Application of Decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the RSNA is just another logical and expected step in Milorad Dodik's decades-long relationship with the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina and its institutions.
For a long time, we have witnessed his extreme arrogance, disrespect for state symbols, institutions and laws, denial of statehood and the state, and the continuous non-implementation of decisions of the Constitutional Court of BiH, without any political or legal consequences.
The inability of Bosniak and pro-Bosnian politics to understand global trends
All this has been done through constant political manipulation by raising ethnic tensions and a policy of blackmail, to which Bosniak and pro-Bosnian forces, as well as the international community, have had neither an adequate political nor legal response. In fact, the only response they had was a constant policy of appeasement and retreat, which has resulted in Dodik's approach becoming increasingly aggressive in conquering the political and legal space that was ceded to him. The consequence of such "spineless" and empty political action is that Dodik has managed to take over all key institutions of the system and functionally euthanize them. So today, when he is destroying the Dayton Peace Agreement and the constitutional-legal order of Bosnia and Herzegovina, there is no one to react, because the institutions of our state are, by appointing suspicious individuals to key positions, de facto dead, i.e., completely non-functional and meaningless.
I am fully aware that the exclusive blame for this situation does not lie solely with Bosniak and pro-Bosnian politics, which, realistically, in such a predatory political system as the Dayton one, had a very narrow maneuvering space and effectively had its hands tied in the fight against two strong anti-state projects, sponsored and actively supported by the diplomatic networks of Belgrade and Zagreb. In doing so, we must be aware and admit to ourselves that, in this long-term process, Bosniak and pro-Bosnian diplomacy and lobbying have completely failed, leaving this state like a paper boat at the mercy of the waves of global geostrategic realignments.
Hypocrisy of the international community
It is clear to all of us that Dayton stopped the war and froze the conflict, and that the Dayton Constitution is a straitjacket for Bosnia and Herzegovina and an instrument that gives its enemies all the necessary tools for its final destruction and the partition they desire. The policies that led to the war through Dayton merely continued political action within new realpolitik frameworks, and from that point on, politics in BiH became a continuation of war by other means. This is especially pronounced in a situation where the international community has, for decades, tolerated the aforementioned disrespect for state symbols, institutions and laws, denial of statehood and the state, and non-implementation of decisions of the Constitutional Court of BiH.
The response from that part of the international community which is a declarative friend of this country is, as a rule, "strong condemnation" and the traditional "expression of concern" over Dodik's arrogance and rampage on the political scene of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It should be noted that throughout his actions against the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dodik had open political support and sponsorship from Russia. What is devastating is that Milorad Dodik, in that long period of his anti-state political arrogance, by gradually shifting boundaries, managed to "boil the frog", so that today, when we have an open coup d'état, the international community not only lacks an adequate response, which would be removal, arrest and a ban on political activity, but also remains silent. More than 24 hours have passed since the adoption of the Law on Non-Application of Decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the RSNA, and we still have no concrete reactions or actions to protect the constitutional-legal order of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
It is particularly worrying and dangerous for our society that there is no reaction from the OHR, whose mandate is to protect peace and implement the Dayton Peace Agreement, nor from the states that are its "witnesses" or, as we in Sarajevo apparently mistakenly perceive them, "guarantors".
Where are we in the world?
International relations are relations of power, and all states strive to build good and friendly relations with those states they perceive as powerful. No one wants the powerless. Only in this context can we understand why the "international community" sees Serbia, a country that is a constant source of instability and the cause of all the region's problems, as a partner, and all other countries—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo and Macedonia—as a necessity. The reality is that Serbia, as the largest country in the region, has some kind of political and military dominance over the countries of the region. Hence such tolerance and support for the "Serbian World", a complete ideological clone of the "Russian World", wrapped in the hegemonic project "Open Balkan" and the continuous turning of a blind eye to Serbian interference in the internal affairs of neighboring states. And it will remain so until weapons start rattling in the Balkans, a kind of soft underbelly of the European Union and NATO alliance. And the softest part of that underbelly is Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.
Therefore, it is no coincidence that, while the Russian aggression against Ukraine rages, we are witnessing an increasingly aggressive Serbian hegemonic policy in the region. It was so in Montenegro and Kosovo, and it is so today in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia does this openly under the diplomatic patronage and with the logistical assistance of Russia. The "West" infantilely turns a blind eye to this, expresses concern and avoids any conflict, which, in my humble opinion, is inevitable. Inevitable because the aggression against Ukraine is not pure Russian hegemonism of disciplining small neighbors, which we saw in Chechnya or Georgia, but Russia's last attempt to return Russia as a great power to the geostrategic map of the world.
The Russian intervention in Syria already marked the beginning of a new era, Russia's return to the big game, and the military aggression against Ukraine was supposed to be its magnificent and triumphant conclusion, which would impose Russia as a major player without whom the picture of the world cannot be shaped.
Putin has opened a chess game in the Balkans!
However, the current situation is that Russia is not only doing poorly in Ukraine, but is inevitably losing the war it started (one indicator is the recent Prigozhin coup attempt) and Vladimir Putin desperately needs something with which to blackmail the West and weaken support for Ukraine, in order to force Ukrainians to the negotiating table and get his own Dayton, which would allow him to permanently retain the occupied territories and "honorably" stop the war, which has become a noose around his neck. Therefore, it is no coincidence that on the same day the RSNA adopted the Law on Non-Application of Decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in Banja Luka we had a parade of the biker group Night Wolves, whose leader is Putin's intimate Aleksander Zaldostanov, known as "The Surgeon". That is why it is not strange that Milorad Dodik is doing this right now, when Aleksandar Vučić is also moving the Serbian Army to the south, towards Kosovo.
All of you who think that Milorad Dodik will stop at this move and back down, as he has done who knows how many times before, are greatly mistaken. This is actually just the beginning of the end, indicating that a desperate Putin has made a move with his pawns and opened a chess game in the Balkans, opening a game in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. Unfortunately, the West has been caught off guard and remains silently mute over the development of a situation that our institutions are not capable of handling. Once again, and for who knows how many times in our long history, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bosniaks have been left to their own devices.
And what now?
The sooner we realize that only we, our unity and the political strength that stems from that unity, are the only guarantors of the survival of Bosnia and Herzegovina and thus our biological survival as a people, the sooner we will restore the shaken balance of political relations and direct political processes in a positive direction. Others, i.e., the West, will help us only as much as we ourselves are strong and capable, not only of articulating our political views and ideas, but also of representing them credibly, achieving them, fighting for them, and organizing our own society the way we want.
The best example of this attitude is Ukraine and the honorable and brave struggle of Ukrainians for their state and their freedom. If the Ukrainian people had not shown unity and had not fought bravely, no one would be helping Ukraine and that country would today be under the totalitarian boot of the "Russian World". Therefore, today, more than ever, we must suppress political differences, show unity and stand in defense of our state and people so that we do not end up as a political ornament of the "Serbian World". If anyone knows what that means, it is we Bosniaks, and we must not allow ourselves to be caught unprepared again!
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