Financial Times: European Commission's Illusions About BiH's Progress

(Patria) - Almost 30 years have passed since the end of the war in BiH, and for most of that time, BiH's EU membership seemed like a distant future. However, the war in Ukraine has changed a lot.

This is stated by the London Financial Times (FT) at the beginning of an analysis of the decision by EU leaders to give the green light for the start of accession negotiations with BiH, reports N1.

"Geopolitical threats to Europe caused by the war in Ukraine have spurred genuine momentum behind the EU's efforts to expand its membership.

BiH on the Verge of the Process

The goal is to include Ukraine, Moldova, and even Georgia, as well as six Balkan countries - Albania, BiH, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia in this process," writes Tony Barber in his analysis.

He adds that in the past 20 years, the reform process in the Balkans has been slow - or, as in the case of Serbia, has gone into reverse.

The author notes that no country has joined the EU since Croatia's accession in 2013, and none are close to joining, but now "for unfortunate, but compelling reasons, BiH has found itself on the verge of this process."

He recalls that earlier this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recommended that EU governments should begin formal membership negotiations with BiH.

"Bosnia and Herzegovina has made impressive steps forward. In just over a year, more progress has been made than in an entire decade," said Von der Leyen.

She then listed the adoption of the Law on Conflict of Interest in BiH; the Law on Prevention of Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorism; improvements to the judicial system; efforts to combat corruption and organized crime; management of illegal migration; and alignment with EU foreign policy.

Seemingly, the author states, these are useful reforms, but he points out that not all experts dealing with the situation in BiH are convinced.

One of them is Jasmin Mujanović, a political scientist from Sarajevo, who wrote on social network X that it is "complete madness" to suggest that BiH has made substantial progress in terms of EU membership criteria.

"There is no process or logic here; Brussels is making things up as it goes along," Mujanović stated.

In other words, the author states, the European Commission has strong geopolitical arguments for promoting BiH's membership, but knows that these alone are not enough for the country to join the EU. There are indispensable criteria that must be met.

Instead, the Commission chooses to foster the illusion that BiH is finally on the path to transforming the institutions that have made it the most politically paralyzed, most dysfunctional state in Europe since 1995, the text states, adding that some European leaders are well aware of this.

Tip of the Iceberg

"I think it is reasonable that the Commission stated there has been progress since December... I don't think it's enough to simply say now: start accession negotiations," said Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on the eve of the EU summit.

The author then adds that the lack of reforms may only be the tip of the iceberg in BiH and notes that the latest "Annual Threat Assessment" from the US intelligence community, from February this year, mentioned the president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, as a person who "takes provocative steps to neutralize international oversight in BiH and ensure the *de facto* secession of his RS".

As the main problem plaguing BiH, the author cites a statement by Željko Komšić, member of the Presidency of BiH from the Croat people, given before the UN General Assembly in September last year:

"Bosnia and Herzegovina does not represent full democracy, but a form of ethnocracy. Such a system, which guarantees participation in power to certain political actors and their ethnically based political parties, has the form of past and present totalitarian systems".

In her essay for the Centre for European Policy, Berte López Domènech wrote that the Dayton Agreement is one of the main causes of the current unfortunate situation in BiH, the author claims.

"Nationalist leaders have constantly abused blocking mechanisms to boycott the normal functioning of institutions, pushing BiH into a permanent political stalemate... The division of the political system along ethnic lines has also paved the way for corruption.

The main nationalist parties have benefited from the ethnically divided system, capturing the state to serve their interests and consolidating their control over institutions and public enterprises," the analysis for the Centre for European Policy states.

These acute problems, the author adds, are exacerbated by a weak sense of pan-Bosnian identity.

Kristian Nielsen, writing for the Centre for Democracy "Albert Hirschman" Institute for Graduate Studies in Geneva, explains:

"Each of the main ethnic groups - Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats - has a strong sense of their own identity, and each has its own historical narratives, but an overarching national identity remains contested. The identification of most Serbs and Croats with neighboring countries (and often holding dual citizenship) only complicates matters.

Here, according to the author, lies the central problem of the EU's approach to BiH's potential accession to the Union.

"Democracy is a condition for membership, but by supporting the Bosnian-Herzegovinian political system based on ethnicity, the EU may actually strengthen anti-democratic tendencies," the FT text states.

Step by Step

In a recent report by the Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands, it was stated:

"(The Western Balkan Six) have slowly evolved into 'stabilitocracies': countries with apparent democratic deficits that simultaneously claim to be working on democratic reforms and offer stability... Engagement with political leaders, rather than civil society in BiH, hinders effective democratization".

Supporting the above conclusions, the author also states that the European Court of Human Rights has ruled on several occasions that BiH's political system discriminates against citizens seeking the right to democratic representation regardless of their ethnic affiliation.

In the ruling of the case "Kovačević v. Bosnia and Herzegovina," the court found that:

"...the current political system has made ethnic considerations and/or representation more relevant than political, economic, social, philosophical, and other forms of representation, thereby reinforcing ethnic divisions in the country and undermining the democratic character of elections".

By adopting a "step by step" approach, the author argues, the EU could grant BiH some of the benefits of EU membership before the country is ready for full accession.

He also acknowledges that, despite all its shortcomings, the Dayton Peace Agreement at least ended the terrible war of the 1990s.

However, if Bosnia and Herzegovina is to join the EU as a full member, its disastrous political system based on ethnic representation will have to be fundamentally reformed," the FT text concludes, reports N1.