BiH state is no longer on autopilot, it is rapidly collapsing

By: Amra Vrabac

Since the fastest formation of the BiH Council of Ministers in January 2023, the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina has only seen the fastest collapse.

Decimated institutions, further damaged national balance to the detriment of Bosniaks, numerous party directors in office despite expired mandates, hijacked institutions due to the ignorance of the new partners from the Troika, weakened state security apparatus, poor foreign policy have brought BiH into the focus of power centers, primarily in a religious context, rather than as a candidate country for EU membership or NATO accession.

Today, in international circles from Brussels, through London and Berlin to Washington, BiH is spoken of as a problem that could escalate at any moment.

The pressures and lobbying of Dragan Čović and Milorad Dodik and their lobbyists in key power centers have paid off. The end of the Dayton Peace Agreement and a new territorial arrangement are increasingly mentioned. Some are working on the independence of the RS entity, others want an ethnically pure 'third entity' and the right to an HDZ member of the BiH Presidency. Bosniaks are caught between two fires.

In just one year, the state government, or what's left of it cobbled together by force of the international factor, has brought Bosnia and Herzegovina and its citizens to the brink of the abyss.

Three state police agencies, crucial for border protection and the fight against terrorism and all forms of organized crime, have been decimated in terms of personnel and resources over the last three years. While state agencies were dwindling, the border became increasingly porous, leading to thousands of migrants entering BiH or being returned by Croatia across our border. At the same time, the RS entity's Ministry of Internal Affairs and cantonal ministries of internal affairs were strengthened, while the Federal Police Administration has been completely set back by politics, with cases being investigated by POSKOK. What was intended to be the foundation for preserving the security of the Federation of BiH has become the subject of investigations, and the blame for the state of the FUP lies not with Dodik or Čović, but with the flawed Bosniak policy.

Ministers from the Troika have been silent for months about the apparent ethnic cleansing of Bosniaks from state institutions, and where they are present, if they are not obedient to the Troika, they face disciplinary proceedings, mobbing, threats, and punishments.

Out of 18 directors appointed by the BiH Council of Ministers for the 2023-2025 term, only three are Bosniaks. We have written dozens of articles about institutions whose directors' mandates have expired but who still lead them. There are no Bosniaks among them.

The House of Peoples of the BiH Parliament has been paralyzed for a year, and it appears this will continue, even though Čović is announcing a new majority for changes to the BiH Election Law.

The BiH Council of Ministers has not adopted laws required by the European Union for months, nor two laws that would prevent FATF from placing BiH on its grey list.

With their flawed and inadequate policies and concessions to Dodik and Čović on several key points, the Troika has cornered Bosniaks, making it difficult to escape. If the state was on autopilot before their rise to power, it has now begun to rapidly decline.

Dodik, emboldened by visits to power centers, is once again announcing the independence of the RS, presenting Bosniaks and Muslims as a problem without an adequate response. And those who brought us to this critical point are saying that in that case, they will flee out of shame. We saw their lack of shame when they were willing to lie that Dodik did not curse the genocide in Konjic. Two witnesses from that meeting never attended coalition meetings again.

The election year has just begun, and Bosniaks must fight battles on multiple fronts. Both internally and externally, to mitigate damage and preserve the state. If it's not already too late...