Dodik announced the end of Dayton and the beginning of RS secession: Are pro-Bosnian forces ready to restore the Constitution of RBiH?

By: Rasim Belko

Today, on this rainy or some other day, the peaceful secession of Bosnia and Herzegovina will happen. This process has begun and cannot be stopped. This is how the president of RS, Milorad Dodik, has once again announced what, it seems, no one in Bosnia and Herzegovina wants to hear, or hears but pretends to be deaf out of fear.

And Dodik says all this after the visit of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to Sarajevo, who yesterday repeated the old phrase that NATO allies fully support sovereignty and territorial integrity.

However, the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the pro-state policy should trust Dodik more, meaning that his intentions and messages are more truthful than Stoltenberg's. Because this country has already had experience with international promises, and only the naive can believe they are sincere.

And Dodik is determined; he will soon visit Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin, where he will receive support and new tasks. And then he will return and be even more convinced of the opportunity to divide Bosnia and Herzegovina through peaceful dissolution.

Ultimately, Dodik clearly stated today in his address to the public - BiH will disintegrate because it will not join the European Union until the issue of foreign judges, the election law, and the departure of the OHR are resolved. Dodik knows that even if this is resolved, Bosnia and Herzegovina will certainly disintegrate, because the Constitutional Court without foreign judges, burdened by ethnic division and voting, and legitimate voting clearly lead to the peaceful dissolution of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The biggest problem in all of this is the fact that Dodik is the strongest politician in Bosnia and Herzegovina with a clearly defined roadmap towards achieving his goals. In addition, as much as it may seem ridiculous to Sarajevo, Dodik has serious allies in Russia, Serbia, China, Hungary, and some other countries.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, in principle, has more of them, but it also had them in the nineties, and then experienced double aggression and various forms of crimes up to genocide.

Therefore, it is up to the pro-state policy in Sarajevo, whatever that term may entail, to ensure everything necessary to dissuade Dodik from dissolution, while simultaneously securing the means and everything necessary to let him know that he will be prevented if he attempts it.

There is no peaceful dissolution; Dodik knows this, just as Stoltenberg knows it. So the question is whether the head of the Balkan tour came only with talk of bases, and whether these bases will serve to preserve peace, regardless of secession and the spread of Russian influence.

In other words, is NATO's only goal to preserve peace, given that Dodik freely and confidently announces secession, violating Dayton without serious consequences. If so, the pro-state forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina would have NATO against them.

What is surprising in all of this is the fact that pro-state, Bosniak, or pro-Bosnian forces, when commenting, focused more on the politics of Stoltenberg's visit rather than the spoken and unspoken messages. Because Stoltenberg, unlike before, now only talks about supporting BiH, but not that NATO allies will defend BiH's territorial integrity and sovereignty.

"There is no reason for us to dwell on the Dayton Agreement today," Dodik announced today, making it clear that the peace agreement is a piece of paper to him, useful only when it serves the needs of RS and its secession.

It is expected that the politicians of the 'trojka', as well as the pro-Bosnian parties from Sarajevo, are already prepared for constitutional changes, given that the president of RS has publicly announced that the Dayton Peace Agreement is no longer in effect.

This means that the pro-state political factor must act according to the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which unequivocally stipulates that with the cessation of Dayton, we return to the Constitution of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In that Constitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina is unified, and entities and cantons are non-existent. Therefore, with one chess move, the pro-Bosnian political bloc could permanently shatter Milorad Dodik's dreams.

If they are not ready to carry this idea through to the end, then at least they should try to simply see the reaction of the international community, which is silently observing Dodik's secessionist announcements.

The key question is whether pro-Bosnian forces are as ready as Dodik?