DODIK ANTE PORTAS From rose-tinted glasses to harsh reality: The time of sobering has arrived!

Written by: Rasim Belko @rasimbelko

Until yesterday, all of us who warned about the perniciousness of Western policy in the Balkan whirlwind, and especially the policy of the geopolitical Shrek from Washington, were labeled radicals who would lead Bosnia and Herzegovina to Russia, China, Iran…

Today, however, those who pinned epithets on us, struck by post-traumatic symptoms of severe sobering and the final realization of the collapse of the power they viewed through rose-tinted glasses, are in panic and delirium asking questions about the existence of the international community and its effective strength against the vortex in our region.

If we, as a society, had spent less time in delusions and more time seeking real-political solutions, we would not have ended up in a situation where a sword hangs over our fate, waiting for the circle to close. And it is interesting that a circle opened in January 1998 could very likely be closed in February 2025.

The opening was brought by the tanks and steel democratic power of Bill Clinton, who, after his administration failed to destroy Bosnia and Herzegovina, decided to leave it a burden called Milorad Dodik. Clinton left, and after him came and went American presidents, but the approach of controlled chaos in Bosnia and Herzegovina and its continuous erosion continued.

Clinton's product, imposed on us by tanks, obviously could not be stopped except by the imposition of some new force. And then Michael Murphy, as a follower and executor of the same Clinton policy, imposed Schmidt and his codes on us. Dodik, who now has his own political and many other tanks, is not someone who will easily bow to an imposed decision-maker. The circle will close at the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Milorad Dodik will likely be convicted for not respecting the impositions of the intrusive Schmidt.

And then we will need tanks again. And no, this radical is not an advocate of war, but what the tanks bring will not go away if the tanks do not take it away either. Neither Dodik nor the whole bunch of cadremen he has gathered around him have any dilemma about giving in and leaving without a fight. And a fight means war. And the experienced Siniša Karan knows this, who announces the erasure of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Radovan Višković also knows this, who gives us 4-5 days to save Bosnia and Herzegovina. Vučić and Vučević know this, who (un)friendlily send us a message to think about whether we will convict Dodik, because they are, you see, worried about what the consequences might be.

And Sarajevo? Well, the situation there is regular. Even today, that phrase from the early 1990s echoes: "Oh, there won't be a war, the world won't allow it." Because Sarajevo is simply in such a geographical position that, due to a mixture of sun and smog, it sees everything through violet rainbow glasses. In such an approach and view, Sarajevo is still unable to see that the world it places its hopes in has fallen apart and that it is a question of when and whether anyone will manage to put it back together again.

And while Sarajevo sleeps in the delusion that the international community will again stand between it and new tanks, reality relentlessly knocks on the door. The world that shaped the fate of the Balkans is now just a shadow of its former power. America, torn by its own internal divisions and global challenges, is no longer able to maintain the alliance that makes it the world's first policeman. Europe, trapped in its own crises and in conflict with America, helplessly watches the growing flames on its borders.

And Dodik? He knows that the moment is on his side. He knows that the international community is weaker today than ever and that its influence is reduced to futile statements and threats without backing. He also knows that Vučić will not turn his back on his "strategic partner," because behind the scenes, Belgrade has long been playing a double game — hypocritical diplomacy towards the West, the old ambition of the "Serbian world" towards the Balkans.

And while Sarajevo looks towards Brussels and Washington, wondering where all those who once promised peace and prosperity have disappeared, Dodik is preparing his final moves. He knows that if Schmidt succeeds in bringing him down, the RS loses a key player in the fight for secession. That is why Dodik will not stop — because for him, retreat means political death. And when a politician who built his career on threats and blackmail comes to the wall, only ashes and smoke remain behind him.

But the problem is that in those ashes, not only his policy will burn. The illusions of Sarajevo will also burn. The hopes of those who believed that history would this time stop before the boundaries of reason will also burn. But history knows no reason — it knows only the will of those who are ready to shape it. And in the Balkans, those with the most dangerous ambitions have always been the most ready to shape history by shedding blood.

Therefore, when the circle finally closes, the question will not be whether the world will do something. The question will be — will Sarajevo this time understand that one's own fate is not entrusted to others.

And we must understand that we have been left alone in the whirlwind that we partly inherited and partly created ourselves, and the only thing we can do is take off the glasses — rose-tinted, violet, any kind — and face reality. Because in the Balkans, circles never rest, and history teaches us that they close with blood, never with paper.