Čović stokes fires in the south: A staged autumn crisis to achieve HDZ goals?

By: Amina Čorbo-Zećo

Not so long ago, in the midst of the discussion about the "Kovačević v. Bosnia and Herzegovina" ruling, Dragan Čović's politics threatened "unrest in the south." It was not a mere stylistic figure, it was pressure, a political blackmail tool that paid off even then.

During the formation of the government, the threats bore fruit, and later, through lobbying by Croatia, operational conclusions favorable to the HDZ matrix were obtained in Strasbourg, and Čović and his team remained firmly anchored in power.

Now November is approaching, a month of particular importance for Čović. It is no secret that the end of the year, along with the commemoration of three decades of Dayton, is planned to be used as a ceremonial screen for pushing plans to change the Election Law and the Constitution of BiH, according to the Croatian matrix.

In other words, behind the scenes, a scenario is being written in which the international community, allegedly "in the name of stability" (as they also played the Strasbourg tango in the Kovačević case), will actually assist in cementing HDZ's electoral dominance.

Čović's confidence is not a bluff. It is political pragmatism supported by the experience that international winds blow in his sails whenever needed. And for a complete gain, he only needs a controlled dose of "crisis".

This time, there are no open threats; individuals, clearly loyal to centers of power outside Bosnia and Herzegovina, are being used. The case of Sanin Musa and his performance in Široki Brijeg should be viewed in this light. Formally, it is about "fighting for Muslim rights" in a community that is ethnically almost completely homogeneous.

According to the 2013 census, six Muslims live in Široki Brijeg, literally and by number. The message? The public display of a "religious incident" where it is easiest to provoke it, and in front of cameras, is not an act of religious need but part of a broader political staging.

Ultimately, it works against Bosniaks. And it fits perfectly with Milorad Dodik's narrative about radical Muslims.

The Islamic Community reacted measuredly and responsibly, and the story should end there.

However, the political background must not be ignored. Because if we let Čović have his way and face autumn unprepared, we will witness another "diplomatic theater" in which domestic naivety will play the role of extras, and key scenes will be directed from abroad. And in serious politics, that is not called an oversight but dilettantism. Dilettantism that has cost us dearly many times before.