Bečarević for NAP: How Europe Said Goodbye to Russian Gas

By Almir Bečarević, Gas and Energy Expert and Former Minister in the KS Government

The share of gas from the Russian Federation in the total gas consumption in the European Union before the war in Ukraine was up to a maximum of 40%, or up to approximately 200 billion Sm3.

With the outbreak of hostilities, there has been a drastic reduction in the share of Russian gas in the EU's consumption.

At the same time, what is generally important to know about gas consumption in the EU is that it has decreased by approximately 20% in the period from 2021 to 2025. This is the result of the REPower EU program, the European Union's proposal to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027, launched in May 2022.

There were three main goals: energy saving, promoting the growth of renewable energy sources, and diversifying energy supply. Agreeing to this proposal by the European Commission also meant the voluntary consent of EU member states to reduce gas usage.

Let's see what this means in practice.

In 2021, the EU had a total gas consumption of slightly over 400 billion Sm3.

Gas consumption in the EU in 2024 was slightly over 330 billion Sm3, and the forecast for gas consumption in 2025 remains at this level.

When we look at these figures, we see a significant drop in natural gas consumption.

As for gas imports into the EU from the Russian Federation, the indicators are even more drastic and reflect the EU's goals of reducing fossil fuel imports from Russia.

In 2021, gas imports from the Russian Federation were at the level of approximately 150 billion Sm3. The set goals through the REPower EU program have led to a drastic decrease in Russian gas imports, which in 2025 amounted to approximately 36 billion Sm3. This practically means that the share of Russian gas in the EU's gas consumption has fallen to a symbolic 10-12% of the total gas quantities consumed.

What should be known is that before 2021, Russian gas exports to the EU reached a record 180-200 billion Sm3.

In monetary terms, this drop would amount to over 60 billion US dollars. The calculation was made based on the average price of Russian gas for the EU market.

Who has taken over this gas market, or rather, who has increased gas exports to the EU?

The EU has increased gas imports from the USA, Norway, Azerbaijan, Qatar, North Africa...

The biggest winner is the USA, which has tripled its liquefied gas exports to the EU. If we know that gas imports into the EU will be banned by the end of 2027, it is expected that a substitute for these 36 billion Sm3 will be found in diversified gas sources within the EU. This would ultimately leave Russia with at least 100 billion Sm3 in revenue from its gas exports to the EU.

What else needs to be known is that occasional news about an increase in Russian gas exports to the EU is a masking of the bitter truth, because, for example, EU liquefied gas imports from Russia in the first quarter amounted to approximately 7 billion Sm3, and total imports were around 12 billion Sm3.

Total gas consumption in the EU in the first quarter of 2026 was approximately 130 billion Sm3. We see that this is still at the level of 10-12% of the total imported gas quantities. This percentage fluctuates monthly in the range of 1-3% depending on weather conditions or disruptions in liquefied gas supply.

Renewable energy sources have an increasing share in the EU's energy mix, and the EU's goal is for hydrogen to take the place of natural gas.

The EU has problems in realizing REPower EU, and there will be more, but one thing is certain - Europe has said goodbye to Russian gas.

The war has done something that would have been difficult to achieve if it hadn't happened.

The legacy of German Chancellors Gerhard Schröder and Angela Merkel is slowly fading into oblivion. Why? The capacity of the Nord Stream pipeline alone was approximately 120 billion Sm3, and now gas imports from Russia are around 36 billion Sm3.