Analysts for DW: Sarajevo Summit Will Not Solve Key Problems

SARAJEVO, (Patria) - The upcoming summit of the Southeast European Cooperation Process will not solve key regional problems, but it is good that discussions are taking place, according to analysts.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, among others, is arriving in Sarajevo.

Summits dedicated to the Western Balkans are useful on one hand, and routine on the other, says former BiH Ambassador to France and a well-informed expert on international affairs, Slobodan Šoja, writes Deutsche Welle.

Šoja notes that it is important for BiH to always be present at such gatherings "with the best possible representatives" and well-prepared. "The Berlin Summit is an example of both usefulness and routine. Ambitiously announced, it was very serious, as only Germans can be, and many issues were discussed. Nevertheless, little was achieved. There were certainly some steps forward due to the seriousness of the organization, but the key and almost unsolvable problems remained," Šoja tells Deutsche Welle.

He believes that something similar will happen in Sarajevo, at the summit of the Southeast European Cooperation Process.

"Cordial atmosphere, smiles, and veiled diplomatic statements, and behind it all, unease, misunderstandings, and various other products of incompetence and superficiality of Balkan leaders," our interlocutor points out. "I predict that such conferences will become increasingly routine and fruitless in the future, because the European perspective of the Balkans is in a worse position than it was a few years ago. It seems to me that as time goes by, our country is moving further away from the European Union (EU). While the EU is experiencing an increasingly evident period of fatigue and disappointment with enlargement to the Balkans, BiH is doing nothing concrete to meet the strict Brussels conditions," says Šoja.

Is the Security Aspect a Priority in BiH?

"At the same time, I have a feeling that the EU has been viewing BiH mainly from a security perspective for some time now, and less from a political one. That's why there are current discussions about NATO and meeting the conditions for NATO membership," says Šoja. He warns that the authorities in BiH are only thinking about "short-term private interests" and not at all about long-term state and general interests. "We need to focus on genuine reforms of spirit and education and strive to create a state where order and law prevail. The day we change our consciousness and start respecting universal principles and regulations, we will become de facto members of the EU. Europe will not build a better, more beautiful, and happier country for us, but we will," concludes Slobodan Šoja.

Milan Sitarski, a member of the Expert Team of the Institute for Social-Political Research (IDPI) Mostar, believes that the Sarajevo summit, like the recently concluded Western Balkans Conference in Poznań within the framework of the Berlin Process, is being held in "extremely unfavorable circumstances."

"First of all, the highest bodies of the EU are in the process of formation, which is more difficult and unpredictable than ever before, so it cannot be expected that the EU will actively and realistically, not just declaratively, dedicate itself to this part of the continent before this process is completed. Furthermore, geopolitical risks in Europe's surroundings are further diverting the attention of the entire European political elite from our region," Sitarski tells Deutsche Welle.

Legitimacy Crisis in Albania and Blockade of Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue

The situation in the region is also turbulent.

"The situation is extremely unfavorable in Albania, where there is practically a kind of legitimacy crisis. In Serbia and Montenegro, there is also a deep gap between the authorities and the opposition. However, in none of these countries can the political situation be considered regular in terms of European standards of democracy," says Sitarski. He also recalls the complicated relations and the blockade of dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. "The responsibility for introducing high tariffs on goods from Serbia and BiH, which violates CEFTA rules, certainly lies with the Pristina side, and it is possible that the elite there actually wanted to intentionally suspend the dialogue, fearing the results of its continuation. Ideas about partition or exchange of territories have in no way contributed to the continuation and success of the dialogue," says Sitarski.

The situation is not much better in BiH, where the government has not been formed even nine months after the general elections.

"This blockade is essentially caused by deep disagreements about the very character of BiH society and state, so there is no consensus even on the necessary amendments to the BiH Election Law, a part of which the Constitutional Court has annulled, making the recent elections held under these circumstances a complete curiosity in comparative democratic practice," notes Sitarski.

"It is almost unbelievable that European officials missed the opportunity to unequivocally reward North Macedonia for the not-so-easy conclusion and implementation of the Prespa Agreement, but I hope that this big mistake will be corrected once the EU bodies are constituted," says a member of the IDPI Expert Team.

For analysts, Erdoğan's arrival is in principle a positive fact, given Turkey's economic strength and its significance for the region. However, they remind that the limitations posed by problems in the functioning of democracy in that country should also be taken into account. Speaking about Turkey's role within the Cooperation Process, the first BiH Ambassador to Ankara and one of the best connoisseurs of Turkish policy towards the Balkans, Hajrudin Somun, says that similar summits, processes, and pacts existed in the region "even before the nineties," but they did not succeed in preventing conflicts in this region.

Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi was the first to cancel his arrival in Sarajevo, and Albania solidarized with him, canceling its delegation's arrival at the last minute.