The American Republic and Trump's MAGA Movement After the New Conflict in the Middle East

Written by: Armin Sijamić

After nearly two weeks of war between Israel and Iran, US President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire and bought time for all sides to take the next steps. Parallel to this, Trump is facing divisions within his MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement.

The reason for Donald Trump's rapid rise in American politics should also be sought in his advocacy for peace, ending American wars around the world, and redirecting resources to domestic needs.

However, it is not certain whether Trump truly wants an end to wars, or whether he merely correctly assessed the mood of Americans. This was also evident over the past two weeks as Israel and Iran exchanged blows, while he gave contradictory messages daily, only to eventually attack Iranian nuclear facilities.

Therefore, Trump, like other politicians, should not be judged by his words, but by his deeds. The self-proclaimed peacemaker, in his two terms at the helm of the world's largest power, has repeatedly come to the brink of war with Iran. In addition to the attack carried out on Iran this weekend and Iran's response to the US military base in Qatar, let us recall that Trump in 2020, during his first term, eliminated the most prominent Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani, in Iraq. Three years earlier, Trump attacked the alleged Syrian chemical program. In his second term, he launched a crackdown on Yemen's Houthis and continued aid to Israel in its attack on the Gaza Strip.

In whose name?

All of these Trump attacks share one common link – the intention to break (pro-)Iranian forces in the Middle East and to help Israel achieve its goals. This has become clear even to Trump's supporters, people who stood by him even when he faced prison. In recent weeks, a rebellion of these people against Trump's policy has been underway.

The rebellion against the use of American resources for Israeli wars first came from those often called "controversial right-wingers" and "conspiracy theorists" in the United States. These days, the loudest are Tucker Carlson, former Fox News television star; Alex Jones, media personality and proven conspiracy theorist; Steve Bannon, former Trump political strategist; Douglas Macgregor, former US Army colonel and Pentagon advisor; and many others.

They raised their voices against Trump's, and generally American, policy of Washington fighting Israel's battles. In the mainstream American media, or as some here often call them "reputable," there is no room for criticism of Tel Aviv. Israel receives special treatment in those media. However, some critics have their own media platforms and reach a large number of Americans via the internet. After all, it was precisely they who pulled Trump out of media obscurity during the last presidential campaign.

A particular target of these attacks was AIPAC, the most prominent Israeli lobby in the United States, which in the last elections backed Trump and numerous Republicans and Democrats. According to the website Track AIPAC, which monitors the work of this lobby, for example, the overwhelming majority of Republicans and Democrats in the US House of Representatives are supported by AIPAC. On social media, AIPAC is known to boast that all or nearly all of the candidates they supported, both Republicans and Democrats, won their election races.

Criticism of Washington's policy towards Israel has sometimes sparked cases of anti-Semitism, so on social media there is increasingly more content that insults an entire people and an entire religion. Not so long ago, when social media were more strongly controlled, such comments would be deleted and users removed from the network. Trump's coming to power meant, as his supporters said, a return to freedom of speech, and social media are often full of shameful comments.

The American Republic

AIPAC and other lobbies do not operate illegally. American laws allow lobbying, and the money lobbies give to a candidate is a public matter. AIPAC and other lobbies play by the rules of the game.

But this raises the question of the state of the American republic, i.e., the right of citizens to elect representatives in government. Trump's policy towards Iran, i.e., unconditionally siding with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even when he attacks other countries, brings this issue back into the focus of the American public, although the primary reason is examining Trump's promise - "America First."

This also raises the question of America's prevailing two-party system. The last to speak about this was Elon Musk, the richest man in the world. At the beginning of the month, leaving the Trump administration and accusing the president that his name appears in the files of the infamous Jeffrey Epstein, he alluded that the United States needs a third party that "represents the 80 percent in the middle," referring to citizens who belong to neither Democrats nor Republicans.

Trump's decision to attack Iran was opposed by some Republicans and Democrats. For some of them, Track AIPAC stated that they did not work with AIPAC. One of them is Republican Thomas Massie. Congressman Massie had the "honor" of having an entire social media post dedicated to him by President Trump, who told him he was not part of the MAGA movement and, after a barrage of insults, promised to get involved in the Republican primary race in Kentucky so that he would no longer be a candidate.

Also opposed to Trump's war against Iran was Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. A fiery advocate of the "America First" policy, she wrote on social media that she "does not know of a single American who was a victim of a crime, or killed, by Iran" and called on Trump to focus on domestic affairs, saying she does not want to fight in the wars of "nuclear-armed Israel."

Criticism of Trump's war against Iran and wars in general was joined by some others. Democrats Jim Himes, Adam Schiff, and Chuck Schumer, for example, argued that Trump's attack was illegal and that he should have informed Congress about everything. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez accused Trump of "betraying the American people and the Constitution for illegally bombing Iran and dragging" the country into war. Trump, among other insults, said Ocasio-Cortez is the "dumbest" person in Congress.

MAGA Changes the Rules of the Game

Trump's moves in the Middle East did not sit well with his supporters, nor with his critics. Polls conducted before the attack on Iran showed that the vast majority of Americans are against war. They still remember the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and most do not want a prolonged conflict.

Trump's policy has opened numerous questions. If the majority of the population was against the war, if even Trump's supporters were against the war, and Congress was not informed about his moves, then the question is who and how governs the American republic, which has clear constitutional and legal limits on the separation of powers.
With his policy towards the Middle East, Trump also brought policy towards Israel under public scrutiny, which was unthinkable just a few months earlier. Various current and former US civilian and military officials, journalists, celebrities, scientists... have been discussing this topic for days, which certainly does not please Israel, which has unconditional support from Washington.

How these processes will develop is unclear, but what is on the table is the future of the MAGA movement. Trump can no longer run for US president, and this opens up space for a successor.

One of those who is supposedly to be his successor is Vice President JD Vance, who in recent days has played good cop/bad cop in public relative to Trump. Whether the trick worked with MAGA movement supporters is hard to say, but the fact remains that Netanyahu has shaken another US president with his policy, after Joseph Biden fell ingloriously over his policy towards the Gaza Strip.