Washington's 'Schengen' and Bosnia according to the great bear's design

By: Muharem CERO

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It doesn't take much political imagination to place Bosnia according to Lavrov's design in the coming times. Declaring the Dayton framework unquestionable regarding sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the equality of the two entities, while significantly neglecting citizens and others, and only recognizing the equality of the three ethnic groups (nations), is nothing new from the Russian bear.
Every diplomatic expression should be interpreted in the broader context of events before and after it is spoken.

The visit was ultimately canceled, but what was said in previously prepared media appearances, and especially the significant interview given to Večernji list, and Lavrov's pandemic-related avoidance of Croatia during his Balkan tour, is nothing more than an accelerated response to the announced Washington Mini Schengen.

We have often heard from Ambassador Ivancov everything that the Russian Federation's foreign policy PR, Lavrov, continuously states. However, this time he appears in a dual PR role. A well-tuned and coordinated policy towards Bosnia from the Zagreb-Belgrade political centers.

Reading the intensive courier diplomacy in the last quarter on the Zagreb-Belgrade route, with Dodik-Čović as the messengers, the complete picture of the plan's map is now coming together.

Somewhat shaken by Pompeo's visit to Croatia and his statement 'we will push BiH on its EU and NATO path,' it stirred up dirty projects, and as a response to their certain sinking, heavy Russian artillery arrives – Lavrov on a mission.

The Washington agreement gave rise to the so-called 'Mini Schengen,' likely well-coordinated between the US and the EU. Courier diplomacy, both underground and above ground, followed.
The duo Čović-Dodik rapidly coordinated the positions of Belgrade and Zagreb, while simultaneously 'pushing' well-spun interpretations of these events in the public space. Essentially, time was being bought.
The symbolism of the last chess game in Belgrade is nothing more than a pretentious announcement of checkmate for BiH's statehood.

The reactions to this visit from the so-called Sarajevo politics were also hesitant, recognizably futile, and ineffective in diplomatic foreign policy actions. The whole story around Mini Schengen has two different timings from the BiH political discourse. The first is skeptical and politically taken aback, and the second is unquestioning and almost joyful. It is precisely this second reaction that the Russian bear intends to destroy.

Diplomatically astute, without directly disputing the American 'Mini Schengen' initiative, he strikes at the very foundation of Bosnia's Dayton aspirations. He almost unconditionally demands the closure of the OHR and the departure of the international community from the process of implementing and interpreting the Dayton Peace Agreement. Annex 10 is declared concluded, unnecessary, and its doors are closed.

If, as is likely, the 'Mini Schengen' idea comes to life, and BiH enters this project without candidate status for the EU, clearly defined state borders, unfulfilled 5+2 conditions for closing the OHR, and without the implementation of all decisions of the Constitutional Court of BiH and the Court in Strasbourg, it will enter an undefined political adventure tailored to Lavrov's design, making its statehood, sovereignty, and territorial integrity easy prey for its neighbors' appetites and for uncorrected war aims.

Reducing BiH to merely a space without internal self-recognition (Dodik-Čović, read Belgrade-Zagreb) is possibly the beginning of a difficult period, but no less so than igniting a new powder keg under the foundations of the region.

No matter how much Lavrov speaks with the authority of a powerful force, a guarantor of Dayton, or Russian geopolitical interest, this time he will have to confront the geopolitical interests of the US and EU administrations' foreign policy, regardless of which political options are in power to implement it.

Is Lavrov coming as an arsonist or a firefighter, or both?