Ukraine faces electricity shortage this winter

(Patria) - Ukraine's electricity supply shortage could reach six gigawatts this winter, about a third of the expected peak demand, due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and the expiration of gas supply contracts at the end of this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022, Ukraine's energy system has been targeted by Russian attacks, resulting in constant power outages and limited electricity supply in some regions for several hours a day. Ukraine has retaliated by attacking energy infrastructure in Russia.

This summer, when electricity demand is usually lower than in winter, Ukraine's generation capacity fell by more than two GW below the peak demand of 12 GW, the IEA reported.

This winter, peak electricity demand could increase to 18.5 GW. Even with electricity imports of 1.7 GW from neighboring European countries, Ukraine's supply deficit could reach six GW, equivalent to the peak annual demand in Denmark.

Further attacks on infrastructure, unforeseen equipment failures, and missed maintenance cycles pose additional risks, the IEA report states.

Under current circumstances, Ukraine could meet its gas needs from domestic production and storage, but a colder-than-average winter would increase the need for imports.

The gas supply transit contract with Russian Gazprom is set to expire at the end of this year, and Ukraine has said it does not wish to extend it.

Ukraine will need to import about 0.6 billion cubic meters of gas in September and October to reach its gas storage target before November 1.