If NATO accession is delayed: BiH must modernize its Armed Forces

The Serbian Army will organize the "Slav Brotherhood" military exercise in the vicinity of Belgrade from November 2 to 15, 2016, in cooperation with 150 Russian paratroopers from one of the most elite Russian airborne units, the 98th Airborne Division Ivanovo.

These are highly trained Russian special forces who have been specially selected through a rigorous one-year process of physical and intellectual challenges, and then drilled and indoctrinated to blind loyalty for conducting so-called hybrid warfare. Western media speculate that this unit, among others, has participated with great success in all major operations on the Ukrainian front.

Hybrid Warfare

Hybrid warfare is warfare conducted by unconventional military formations specially trained for infiltration and conducting all aspects of special warfare. In complete isolation from their home country, they produce so-called hybrid threats through intelligence operations, which include cyber warfare, low-intensity asymmetric conflict scenarios, global terrorism, piracy, illegal immigration, corruption, demographic disturbances, and ethnic and religious conflicts (to which BiH is particularly susceptible), transnational organized crime, the actualization of globalization issues, and ultimately, the use of weapons of mass destruction.

Therefore, the Russian Federation is sending a specialized elite unit for hybrid warfare to Serbia for a military exercise to establish contact on a practical basis between the military forces of Russia and Serbia, develop cooperation, especially in this field, and exchange experiences and knowledge gained so far.

In the meantime, Russian paratroopers are familiarizing themselves with the geographical area, adapting linguistically, establishing their communication and information centers within the Serbian Army via the GLONAS Russian satellite network, and getting acquainted with commanders and soldiers of similar special-purpose units of the Serbian Army and police units of the Republika Srpska entity, etc. Considering all this, a very logical question, completely free from warmongering, arises – for what purpose?

Perhaps the answer to this question lies in the stormy reactions from the smaller BiH entity and Belgrade to my writings about a potential conflict scenario between Serbia and BiH.

Be that as it may, at a recently held presentation of new modern achievements in armaments and equipment of the Serbian Army, organized in Novi Sad, new weapon systems that are gradually being introduced into operational use were presented to the public with great enthusiasm by Prime Minister Vučić and state leadership.

All the displayed systems form the basis for developing a regional military force that can use its armed forces in conventional and unconventional ways, projecting commensurate force in space using the most modern military systems that not even all NATO member states possess.

The public in Novi Sad was shown the new-old tank M-84AB1, equipped with Russian fire control systems and passive and active protection systems (including the SHOTRA 1 system for jamming anti-tank guided missiles, as well as the REFLEX guided anti-tank missile fired from the tank gun and guided from the tank to the target with a range of 5 km), all based on the templates taken from the most modern Russian tank T-90. Then, an improved version of the BVP M80AK or BVP M-98 VIDRA transporter was presented with a new 30 mm cannon, new launchers for 2T5 anti-tank guided missiles with a range of 5 km, and new armored panels with stronger armor protection.

Special attention was paid to anti-armor combat, where the 2T5 guided anti-tank missile with a range of 5 km (based on the Malyutka missile) was displayed to the public. It can be fired from a BOV 1 vehicle or from a Sa-342 Gazela Gama 2 combat helicopter equipped with a completely new optoelectronic sight.

These helicopters are also equipped with the most modern anti-tank missile in the Balkans, the PAUK, developed by the company "EDEPRO" from Belgrade. It is a faithful copy of the Russian missile of the same purpose, the 9M133 KORNET, with a range of 8 km against anti-tank targets.  

The warhead of this missile penetrates the armor of all modern tanks and represents a means of strategic deterrence for a potential aggressor against Serbia or a means of achieving tactical superiority on the battlefield in offensive operations.  

New Military Equipment

The public was also shown a new reconnaissance vehicle based on the BOV3 vehicle with new improved armor, equipped with an optoelectronic system for observation and artillery fire guidance day and night, which can be raised to a height of 5 meters. Then, a small remote-controlled armored vehicle was displayed, equipped with an optoelectronic sight for day and night firing with an M-84 machine gun caliber 7.62 mm and a 40 mm grenade launcher, named MILOŠ, which is controlled from another vehicle at a distance of 1 km. In addition, the PEGAZ drone was presented, which can fly up to an altitude of 3000 m within a range of 70 km and can stay in the air for 6-8 hours.

The drone is equipped with the most modern battlefield observation systems used for reconnaissance, artillery reconnaissance, and linking command systems and exchanging data with tactical units and weapons in the so-called live program over secure military internet communication lines.

Although there is information that anti-tank missiles for engaging armored targets have been mounted on this drone, this information has not been verified for now. In addition to these highly sophisticated systems that are still in the pre-production phase, new artillery systems were also presented to the public.

The new M-94/11 OGANJ C/D multiple rocket launcher was displayed, which has modular boxes with 107 and 128 mm rockets with ranges of 18 and 50 km, which are mounted on an FAP vehicle as needed. The rockets have been upgraded and have a range of 50 km with trajectory correction capabilities, which increases accuracy.

This type of multiple rocket launcher will also be armed with the KOŠAVA guided surface-to-surface missile caliber 220 mm with a range of 50 km, which targets objects the size of 1 m² with a TV and inertial guidance system.

A similar new MORAVA multiple rocket launcher system is already being introduced into the Serbian Army's armament. It is also a multiple rocket launcher with modular boxes for 128, 122, and 107 mm rockets with ranges of 8, 22, and 40 km. The differences are minimal; the main difference is in the 122 mm ammunition taken from a similar Russian GRAD multiple rocket launcher system, which is being introduced into service with the Serbian Army.

In addition to these artillery rocket systems, two self-propelled howitzers on an FAP truck chassis were displayed: the SORA in 122 mm caliber with an automatic loader containing 6 projectiles with a range of 22 km, and one of the most modern self-propelled artillery systems, the NORA B-52, in 152 and 155 mm caliber with a maximum range of 57 km.

The gun is fully automated with an automatic loader for 12 projectiles. The entire piece of equipment has a crew of 4 and, together with the OGANJ, MORAVA, and SORA systems, is integrated into the artillery command and information system. A complete battery of these self-propelled howitzers, which are gradually being introduced into operational use by the Serbian Army, was displayed in Novi Sad.

New armored vehicles of the LAZAR 3 and M-11 types were also displayed, which have been improved in terms of armor protection and mine protection, and can also be used for police purposes. There is also the modernization of the air force on the J-22 Orao and G-4 Super Galeb types, which will receive domestic air-to-air missiles and other modern equipment, as well as the procurement of 14 new latest-generation MiG-29M2 fighter jets from Russia by the end of 2017.

Message from the Commander of the Serbian Army

In his interview in the daily newspaper Politika on October 10, 2016, the Commander of the Serbian Army, General Ljubiša Divković, stated: "Military risk for Serbia is unlikely. Factors threatening security are mainly non-military threats characteristic of all Balkan countries: illegal migrations, Albanian and Islamic extremism, and the international network of organized crime. Increased political and inter-ethnic tensions in certain parts of the region undoubtedly negatively affect the position of the Serbian community in BiH and Croatia..."!!!!

How should one interpret such an official stance from the Commander of the Serbian Army, who includes the situation with the Serbian community in BiH among the threats to Serbia's security?

Is this warmongering, a direct threat of military intervention, or a mere statement without any significance? You be the judge. My opinion is that all the aforementioned modernization of military power currently underway, which will require at least another 5 to 6 years for all systems to be fully operational in the Serbian Army, is aimed at one goal – establishing instruments for intimidation and threats of the use of military force in Serbia's foreign policy.

What does this mean for BiH specifically? It means that Serbia, from the perspective of military superiority in the region, will produce hybrid conflicts in both Croatia and BiH in order to resolve the issue of the position of the Serbian community, especially in BiH, through the secession of the Republika Srpska entity from BiH with international mediation and direct support from the Russian Federation. This is a long-term process whose traces are already becoming recognizable.

The only legitimate way to stop the disintegrative processes in BiH lies in changing national policies within the structures of power to those based on the civic concept, which is unlikely. Simultaneously, BiH must raise the level of its defense capabilities and position itself to be able to defend itself against any attack, including a hybrid attack by the Serbian Army in the future.

Joint Military Exercises

The Armed Forces of BiH must finally establish a system for preventing hybrid warfare with Serbia, which is already partially in place. The characteristics of hybrid warfare are already present – joint military exercises between Serbia and the Republika Srpska entity, arming and increasing the composition of the Republika Srpska police, training of the Republika Srpska police in Russia, blockades at all levels of government where decisions about the BiH Armed Forces (military property and Defense Review) are made, constant writing and actions by various military analysts in the media that BiH cannot defend itself against the Serbian Army – all these are direct influences on the overall defense capabilities and the will to defend the country.

Therefore, Bosnia and Herzegovina must make serious investments in its defense and police sector, starting with at least 100 million KM.

The Armed Forces must re-arm their Land Forces units with higher quality equipment, acquire adequate resources in armored vehicles, artillery, air force, and air defense, establish full airspace control, and prepare the BiH Armed Forces for NATO accession.

If the process of joining NATO is delayed, additional efforts should be made to develop military cooperation and equipment procurement and exchange military technology with strategic partners the USA, the Republic of Turkey, and the Republic of Croatia under very favorable conditions, just as Serbia and the Russian Federation are doing.

In any case, Serbia is clearly not giving up on resolving the issue of Kosovo's status and the Republika Srpska entity and their incorporation into its state-legal system through military means, for which, as can be seen, it is investing millions of euros in modernizing its armed forces.