B&H IS ALSO THERE: New energy projects in the Balkans outline a different geopolitical picture of Europe!

Written by: Armin Sijamić

New energy projects in the Balkans outline a different geopolitical picture of Europe. Russia's aggression against Ukraine has changed Europe in many ways, especially in the energy sector. The European Union's plan to free itself from dependence on Russian energy sources has progressed considerably in its implementation, with some estimating it will be fully achieved within three years. This is supported by two pieces of news that came yesterday from Slovenia and Bulgaria.

When Russia attacked Ukraine in February last year, there were many who claimed that Europe would still have to buy oil and natural gas from Moscow and that this would last for decades. A year later, that assessment could be questioned, or it would be worth reconsidering, which those who know a lot about oil and natural gas will do. The technical implementation of the idea of freeing itself from Russian energy sources, however, is only part of the political plans and processes unfolding before our eyes, the strings of which are pulled by the United States of America, with the assistance of a number of European countries.

Yesterday's events in Slovenia and Bulgaria undoubtedly confirm this, and the geopolitical position of the European countries involved in the agreements shows that a new political reality is being created in Eastern Europe, which will ultimately affect the entire continent. This must also affect Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was mentioned yesterday by Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković in his address in Slovenia.

Nuclear power plants and LNG terminals

Plenković was in Slovenia yesterday, hosted by Prime Minister Robert Golob. In addition to open issues in relations between the two countries, the two prime ministers discussed projects that will also impact neighbouring countries, if implemented. Namely, Croatia wants to expand the capacity of the LNG terminal on Krk and offered Slovenia the opportunity to invest in that project, for which official Ljubljana is interested. Furthermore, the two prime ministers expressed readiness to increase the capacity of the Krško nuclear power plant, i.e., to build a new block that will produce additional amounts of electricity for both countries.

The two countries want further integration in the field of energy production and distribution, turning themselves into important regional factors in this area, even though this seemed unrealistic just a few years ago. Small countries like Slovenia and Croatia cannot do this alone, so it is clear that larger and more powerful countries are behind the plan. Regarding the LNG terminal on Krk, things are quite clear, as the project was strongly supported by the USA to enable Europe to free itself from dependence on Russian gas. The USA supported the construction of LNG terminals in Poland and Germany.

The construction of a new block at the Krško nuclear power plant is particularly not possible for these two countries unless larger and more developed countries provide them with the necessary knowledge and technology. Now that Russia is cut off by sanctions from Europe and can no longer build and service nuclear power plants in other countries as before, it is logical that this empty space will be filled by Western countries, primarily the USA and France as the largest nuclear power within the European Union. Such a solution was agreed upon in Bulgaria.

As Bulgarian media reported yesterday, official Sofia will sign agreements with the USA and France for the construction of four nuclear units in the cities of Kozloduy and Belene. In Kozloduy, the famous American company Westinghouse will build new capacities, and Électricité de France will build them in Belene. This was announced by Deputy Minister of Energy Elenko Bozhkov. According to him, the American and French companies will also deliver nuclear fuel to Bulgaria next year, which will begin to be used from 2025 in existing nuclear power plants built in cooperation with Russia.

New (geo)politics

If these announcements come true, the geopolitical picture of the Balkans and Eastern Europe will change rapidly. Cutting off the flow of energy from Russia distances Moscow from Europe, especially importantly from Germany, and Turkey, which plans to turn the country into an energy hub from which Europe will be supplied, could also feel negative consequences. The construction of LNG terminals across Europe has become a strategic project of the USA and a number of countries, especially Poland, creating a new energy and consequently political reality on the ground.

The construction of nuclear power plants across Europe is a top-tier issue for Germany as well, which, led by the Green Party, wants to close all nuclear power plants in the country. On the other hand, France does not want that now. President Emmanuel Macron announced in February last year the construction of six new nuclear power plants and the extension of the lifespan of as many as 56 reactors that he had previously planned to close. Macron believes that this way the country will achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, which is only part of France's plan. The war in Ukraine made it clear that Europe will need energy and that this is an excellent opportunity to make money. At yesterday's meeting, Prime Minister Golob said he expects the European Union to classify nuclear energy among clean energy sources, which would, with money from Brussels, accelerate the construction of new capacities in Krško. Thus, it could happen that Germany, once again since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, remains isolated in the West.

Croatian Prime Minister Plenković said yesterday that he wants to increase the existing capacity of the terminal on Krk from the current 2.9 to 6.1 billion cubic meters of gas, which would give the terminal "regional, Central European significance," and Golob said that this is also in Slovenia's interest. Plenković further says that Krk could serve for his country to become a "regional energy hub" in the circumstances of a "completely changed energy architecture" in the world, for which he will seek support from Brussels, especially for the construction of a gas pipeline network. The goal, as Plenković says, is for the new gas pipeline to connect "Croatia, Slovenia, Austria, Bavaria, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina," which would certainly be a top-tier political success for the government in Zagreb, for which they have support from Washington.

Yesterday's news from Slovenia and Bulgaria, together with previous events across Europe, indicate that behind numerous political games in the Balkans lie strong energy interests of great powers and companies, even though the West is only partially united on this front. New gas pipelines, LNG terminals and new nuclear power plants are driving many important regional and European processes, shaping new geopolitical maps and drawing new zones of interest for great powers. Eastern Europe almost overnight becomes important again for great powers, and its energy potentials and geopolitical position become particularly valuable.