Trump's Asian allies fear Iran war will weaken their defense against China

(Patria) - Japanese lawmakers, concerned about attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, gathered on Monday at the ruling party's offices in Tokyo to question bureaucrats about evacuation plans, energy supplies, and the legal basis for US action, Reuters reported.

But one question posed at the closed-door meeting, described to Reuters by a politician who attended, reflected a deeper fear haunting Asian power corridors since Trump's attacks over the weekend caused chaos in the Middle East. How would the region react to a gap in its defenses if Washington diverted ships and missiles it now uses to deter China?

The problem is urgent for Japan and South Korea, home to major US military bases that help curb Chinese military growth and nuclear-armed North Korea, as well as for democratic Taiwan, which Beijing claims and Washington arms.

"We hope this operation will be quick, limited, and that resources will be quickly redirected back to Asia," said Chen Kuan-ting, a ruling party lawmaker in Taiwan who is a member of the parliamentary foreign affairs and defense committee.

An extended conflict could harm "stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific," Chen said, adding that Taipei must prepare for Beijing to increase "coercion" while the US is distracted.

Trump, who said US operations in the Middle East would last four or five weeks but could take much longer, plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in late March, although Beijing has not confirmed his visit.

Taiwan is China's internal affair, and Beijing opposes the use of force to violate the sovereignty and security of other countries, said Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, yesterday.

'On temperature'

A Japanese politician who recounted the Monday meeting said a senior Foreign Ministry official responded that Tokyo had sought assurances from Washington that it would not move US military assets.

About forty percent of US warships ready for operations are currently stationed around the Middle East, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies last month.

This includes the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and at least six missile destroyers based in Pacific ports in California, Hawaii, and Japan, the US Naval Institute reported on Monday.

The only US aircraft carrier deployed in Asia, the George Washington, is undergoing maintenance at its base in the Japanese city of Yokosuka.

"The US Navy is overstretched," said Bryan Clark, a former US defense official specializing in naval operations at the Hudson Institute. If the war drags on, there is a real possibility that the United States will reduce its naval presence in Asia to bolster the Iranian conflict, he added.

"The fleet... is not enough to maintain a stable presence in every theater of operations."

The Iran war is depleting US ammunition reserves, which experts have long warned about. The US military has asked companies to increase production, but this could take several years.

This is concerning for the United States because replenishing ammunition reserves in the Indo-Pacific helps deter China from military action in Taiwan in the medium term, said a US official who wished to remain anonymous because it is a sensitive topic.

Japan has already faced delays in the delivery of hundreds of Tomahawk missiles ordered from the United States and could face further delays in deadlines, said Jan van Tol, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

Grand Strategy?

It has only been three months since Washington presented a new security strategy that designated the Indo-Pacific as a key "geopolitical battlefield" and made deterring conflict over Taiwan a top priority.

Since then, Trump has captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a bold military move, threatened to annex Greenland, and allied with Israel to launch a war against Iran.

But while allies in Asia worry that he may be looking away from the target, some analysts say Beijing has little reason to celebrate, at least for now. By attacking Venezuela and Iran, Trump has weakened two Chinese allies who supplied China with oil and boosted its economy.
Some analysts have even suggested that his military actions are part of a grand plan that will allow the United States to focus on containing China.

But the longer Trump's involvement in the Middle East lasts, the more Beijing could begin to benefit.

"The grand strategy should be 'contain Iran in the Middle East, and then redirect resources towards confronting China'," said a Japanese ruling party lawmaker, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"But the question is whether there will be enough resources left to redirect."

China has taken advantage of previous episodes of US distraction, said Jennifer Parker, a former Royal Australian Navy officer, pointing to the rapid militarization of South China Sea islands while the United States was fighting a war in Afghanistan. "Beijing will be watching carefully," she added.