Trump plans to accelerate withdrawal of some US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq

(Patria) – President Trump's administration is reportedly planning to halve the US presence in Afghanistan before handing over power to the administration of newly elected Joe Biden.

According to several US media outlets, the planned troop reduction will almost halve the capacity from the current 4,500 soldiers in Afghanistan to 2,500, while in Iraq, 2,500 soldiers will remain out of 3,000.

However, some of Trump's party colleagues do not consider the decision wise, as they fear that an accelerated withdrawal would destabilize the already uncertain peace agreement with the Taliban, thereby encouraging the insurgents to take power – which would discourage and weaken the government of Afghanistan.

Senate Majority Leader, Republican Mitch McConnell, believes that such a hasty withdrawal would "harm allies, and delight all those who wish us ill".

- The consequences of a premature US withdrawal would likely be worse than the withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 under President Obama, which led to the strengthening of ISIL and a new wave of global terrorism, McConnell explained.

However, some analysts suggest that it is unclear whether Trump's orders can be implemented as quickly as he would like to maintain his image as a president who ended America's "endless wars", and that such a move would have less impact as it is happening only a few weeks before the change in the White House, writes the British Guardian.

Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper was abruptly fired for allegedly challenging the plan for a rapid withdrawal, believing that the Taliban had not met the conditions for such a move.

- The Taliban told everyone in Doha who cared to listen that the US had promised them control over Afghanistan, and therefore they do not need to negotiate – because the Afghan government delegation will have to surrender to them, said former US envoy for Afghanistan, Michael Semple.

He added that "the Taliban will use any withdrawal for the narrative of their own victory. Then they can tell their army, as well as the Afghan government's army, that the US withdrawal does not depend on the Taliban stopping the fighting because the US has approved the Taliban taking Kabul – which is exactly what they are working on."

Semple, a professor at Queen's University in Belfast, believes that this "makes no sense" because "no one wants the Taliban to come to power again, but that is exactly what they are trying to do, and they are arrogant enough to think they can get away with it."

At the same time, Laurel Miller, former US acting special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, believes that much depends on how the withdrawal orders will be executed.

- I would like to know the effects of military operations in terms of closing bases, and what that means in terms of air power, Miller explains and continues: 'I assume that the defense department will try to protect itself through the use of contractors, and even creative accounting in terms of a broader categorization of what counts as troops in Afghanistan versus those on the ground.'

Senior analyst for Afghanistan at the International Crisis Group (ICG), Andrew Watkins, says that US officials have revealed to him that "full counter-terrorism and offensive capabilities will be maintained across the country", even if only 2,500 soldiers remain.

- The Taliban will certainly welcome further US withdrawal, but they have already significantly changed their approach (from aggressively victorious to conciliatory) since the results of the US elections became clearer. This suggests that they might perhaps calm down and wait to see what Biden intends, instead of accepting Trump's order as a 'green light' for more drastic action, Watkins points out.