What does Trump's conviction mean for the presidential election?

Donald Trump's conviction represents an extraordinary collection of historical firsts, writes the BBC. He is the first former or current US president to be found guilty of a crime. He is the first major party potential candidate to also become a convicted felon.

As Trump plans his appeal, it is not too early to consider the political ramifications. This will be difficult, however, given that it has never happened before.

"We often look to history to find some kind of hint of what's going to happen," says Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University.

"But there is nothing in history that is even remotely close to this."

Trump secured the Republican presidential nomination earlier this year and is due to be confirmed at the party convention just days after the verdict on July 11. Polls show that he holds a slight lead over President Joe Biden in many of the key swing states that will decide the election. But those polls also provide evidence that this trial could change that.

In exit polls conducted during this winter's Republican primaries, double-digit percentages of voters said they would not vote for the former president if he were convicted of a felony. An April poll by Ipsos and ABC News found that 16 percent of those who support Trump would reconsider their support in such a situation.

However, those were hypothetical beliefs. At the time, he was facing four criminal cases, including charges related to an alleged conspiracy to overturn the results of the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House.

Now, those voters can make their judgment based on actual conviction. Doug Schoen, a pollster who worked with Democratic President Bill Clinton and independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, says that by then, American voters may feel less about the hush-money case because it relates to events that happened eight years ago. "While it's not a good thing to be convicted of a crime, what voters will be thinking about in November is inflation, the southern border, competition with China and Russia, and the money being spent on Israel and Ukraine," he said.

Even a slight drop in Trump's support, however, could be enough to matter. If a few thousand voters who would otherwise support the former president stay home in a swing state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, it could make a big difference.

"I think it will have an impact and hurt him as a candidate," says Ariel Hill-Davis, co-founder of Republican Women for Progress, a group that has sought to move the party away from Trump. She says that younger voters and those who are college-educated and live in the suburbs are concerned about Trump's behavior and his approach to governance.

"Those voters are really hesitant to get back in line with the Republican Party led by Donald Trump," she says.

"A guilty verdict will only reinforce those concerns."

But leading Republicans, many of whom attended the trial in a show of loyalty to the party's nominee, quickly rallied behind him. House Speaker Mike Johnson called it a shameful day in American history.

"This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one."

Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, has constructed a political model that has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1984. He does, however, acknowledge that Trump's felony conviction could be the kind of "cataclysmic and unprecedented" twist that changes the course of history. "The history books will record this as a truly extraordinary and unprecedented event, but a lot will depend on what happens next," he says.

The final judgment on the significance of Trump's conviction will be in the hands of voters in November. If the former president is defeated, his conviction will likely be seen as one of the reasons why. If he wins, it could become just a footnote to his tumultuous but consequential political career. "History is written by the victors, as we all know," says Engel.