What will happen next in the French elections and how does the electoral system work?

Patria
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What will happen next in the French elections and how does the electoral system work?

(Patria) - Reuters agency explained how the second round of parliamentary elections in France will function on July 7, and possible scenarios after exit polls showed that the far-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen won the first round on Sunday.

The elections for 577 seats in the French National Assembly are a two-round process. In constituencies where no candidate won outright in the first round, the top two candidates, as well as any candidate with more than 12.5% of the total registered voters in that constituency, proceed to the second round. The candidate who receives the most votes in the second round wins the seat.

High turnout on Sunday means that around 300 constituencies now face potential second rounds that, in theory, favor the RN. To prevent these three-way second rounds and block the RN, French politicians from the center-right and center-left have long practiced what they call a "republican front," whereby the third-place candidate drops out of the race and urges voters to vote for the second-place candidate. All candidates must decide by Tuesday evening whether to withdraw or run in the second round.

Many political leaders gave guidance to candidates and voters on Sunday evening. President Emmanuel Macron called for a "broad gathering of republican and democratic" candidates for the second round, effectively targeting both the far-right National Rally and the hard-left party France Unbowed (LFI).

His former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe called on candidates from his party to withdraw if they are in third place and rally behind candidates from the left to the center-right, excluding the RN and LFI.

On the left, leaders of the Socialists and LFI also called on their third-place candidates to withdraw in order to block the RN.

The conservative Republican party, which split before the vote with a small number of its deputies joining forces with the RN, gave no guidance.

But the effectiveness of the "republican front" has weakened over the years, and many voters no longer heed the advice of party leaders. It is also possible that candidates will refuse to withdraw despite guidance from political headquarters in Paris.

Talks over the next 48 hours will be crucial and could significantly change the results, potentially deciding whether the RN achieves a full majority in parliament or not. This is why the outcome of the second round is extremely difficult to predict. Even pollsters have urged caution regarding seat projections.

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