Serwer for NAP: The West must resolve Milorad Dodik's separatism, Ukraine as a roadmap

(Patria) - Professor Daniel Serwer of John Hopkins University in Washington told the Patria agency that all financial resources going to the Republika Srpska entity should be halted due to the policies of the authorities in that entity.

Even before the invasion of Ukraine began, Serwer announced that Russia would continue to destabilize the Western Balkans, and when asked if Putin is ready to go to war with the West in this focal area, Serwer said: "Russia will not wage war in the Balkans, where it has few military resources. But it uses its proxies there for destabilization: Serbian nationalist organizations, Dodik and Vučić."

Serwer told Patria that there is no risk of Bosnia and Herzegovina collapsing, but, he added: "There is a real possibility that Dodik will go too far and provoke a response."

The American professor believes that NATO is currently not focused on expansion while the conflict with Russia is ongoing, and that there is little chance of BiH being admitted to the Alliance through a shortened procedure.

"The prerequisite is consensus within the Bosnian leadership. As far as I know, that does not exist. I doubt NATO is interested in expansion as long as the crisis with Russia continues. But eventual NATO membership is certainly possible. I don't see a problem with Bosnians seeking a 'shortened procedure'," Serwer points out.

When asked if the EU and the US waited too long and missed the opportunity to resolve the issue of Milorad Dodik's separatist policy, an extension of Putin's hand, in time, Serwer said: "They waited too long, but there is still time. What was missing was political will. The invasion of Ukraine could help the US, the UK, and the EU find the political will."

"It is time for more concrete measures. All international funds that reach Republika Srpska should be cut off," Serwer explained.

Regarding the policy of Serbia and its president Aleksandar Vučić, Serwer said: "Nothing from the Russian invasion of Ukraine so far should encourage Serbia. Even Milošević decided not to intervene openly in Bosnia and Herzegovina. I assume Vučić will not want to take that risk."

When asked for his view on the outcome of the situation in Ukraine, Serwer emphasized that a quick Russian victory in Ukraine would be bad news for the Balkans, as it would encourage Serbian irredentism.

"Besides, many Serbs in Republika Srpska and northern Kosovo would welcome the invasion more than Ukrainians. However, things have gone so badly for Russia that even a victory would not be rewarded. And Western solidarity has been strong. Belgrade and Banja Luka should be able to draw the right conclusions."