Russia expects a slight decline in oil exports this year

(Patria) - Russia expects a slight decline in oil exports this year, as well as a potential double-digit drop in oil and gas export revenues, the Ministry of Economic Development announced in its latest forecasts.

Oil exports will decrease in 2025 by 2.08 percent, to 240.1 million tons, according to the baseline scenario, the ministry announced late last week.

Until now, they expected a decrease in export volume by about 4.5 percent and a delivery of 229.7 million tons of oil, reports the TASS news agency.

In 2026, exports are expected to increase to 241.7 million tons, to 243.9 million tons in 2027, and to 251.2 million tons in 2028, according to the baseline scenario in the forecast for Russia's socio-economic development for 2026 and the planning period of 2027 to 2028.

Exports of oil products, on the other hand, are expected to increase by 2.8 percent this year, to 125.9 million tons.

In 2026, the export volume is expected to increase to 132 million tons, and to 134 million tons in 2027, and remain at that level in 2028, the ministry expects, confirming the forecasts from April.

The ministry also confirmed the forecast for oil production this year, at 516 million tons. They also confirmed the forecasts for the period 2026-2028, at 525.2 million tons, and 532.6 million tons and 540 million tons.

Russian oil and gas revenues, on the other hand, are expected to decrease by 12.5 percent this year, to 206.1 billion dollars, according to the baseline scenario, the ministry forecasts.

In the next three years, they are expected to increase, to 215.2 billion dollars in 2026, to 227.5 billion dollars in 2027, and to 251.2 billion dollars in 2028.

The conservative forecast takes into account the increased pressure of punitive measures by Western countries through secondary sanctions, primarily on the Russian fuel and energy sector, more pronounced imbalances in the global economy due to trade wars and consequently slower growth in global demand, and increased supply from countries outside the OPEC+ group.

In the conservative scenario, the ministry predicts a decrease in oil and gas revenues in 2026 to 162 billion dollars. In 2027, according to this scenario, they would amount to 172 billion dollars, and in 2028 to 185.8 billion dollars.