Russia moves military arsenal to Africa after failure in Syria

(Patria) - Russia is reducing its military presence in Syria and transferring part of its arsenal from that Middle Eastern country to Africa, according to flight data and satellite imagery analyzed by Radio Free Europe (RSE).

Moscow appears to have withdrawn a significant amount of military equipment from its bases in Syria since President Bashar al-Assad, a long-time ally of Russia, was overthrown on December 8.

To compensate for the potential loss of its air base in Hmeimim and naval base in Tartus, in Syria, Russia appears to be increasing its presence in Libya, Mali, and Sudan.

However, experts say African countries are unlikely to be viable alternatives.

Nevertheless, flight data and satellite imagery indicate that Russia is transferring part of its military arsenal from Syria to its locations in Africa.

The loss of Syrian bases would be a major strategic setback for Russia, which has used the facilities to project its power in the Middle East and Africa.

Moscow has stated that it is still negotiating with the new government in Damascus regarding the future of its military bases in Syria. But the significant movement of Russian military equipment indicates that it is preparing for a partial or complete withdrawal from Syria, experts say.

Russia has several bases in Africa, where Moscow has intensified its military presence in recent years. These include facilities in Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Sudan.

However, moving a significant amount of military equipment from Russia or Syria to Africa will be expensive, experts say.

"To conduct important operations, Russia will have to pay a lot of money. Both for its air and naval fleets," points out Roland Marchal from the Paris Institute of Political Studies.

It would also be more difficult to fly cargo planes loaded with heavy weaponry all the way from Russia to Africa, and refueling presents a major challenge. This also assumes that Russia will obtain overflight rights from Turkey, a regional rival.

Despite the costs, Russia appears to be moving some of its military assets from Syria to bases in Mali and Libya, where about 1,200 Russian mercenaries are stationed.

Satellite imagery also shows increased activity at the Russian naval base in Sudan. Moscow signed an agreement to open a base on the Red Sea coast of that African country in 2019. It is unclear whether the naval facility is fully operational.

Flight analysis shows that Moscow is sending cargo planes to Libya, some of which are coming from Syria and others from Russia.

In recent weeks, traffic between Russia and Libya has been busier than usual, although it is unclear what the planes were carrying.

A Russian Ilyushin Il-76 jet, a heavy cargo plane, took off from Russia for Libya on December 12, returned to Russia the next day, and immediately flew back to Libya, according to flight data.

Flight data from December 16 also shows an Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft flying from Russia to the Russian military base in Bamako, Mali. The plane returned to Russia the following day.

Cargo planes flying from Russia to Libya used the airspace of Turkey, a NATO member.

The Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington, stated on December 12 that Russia's logistical challenges in reaching Africa "will increase the political leverage that Turkey will have over Russia."

The think tank also mentioned the "practical costs of supporting Russian operations in Africa, if more cargo planes stop to refuel at other airports."