Professor Serwer: Milorad Dodik must be stopped, it's time for a reaction

(Patria) - Milorad Dodik must be stopped, it's time for a reaction, and European capitals and Washington should be concerned, says Daniel Serwer, professor at Johns Hopkins University. In an interview for N1, he comments on the latest developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the region, as well as the moves of Russia and America, and the new diplomatic representatives of the USA in the Balkans.

N1: Professor, the situation in the Western Balkans is becoming wilder every second, not minute, hour, or day, as we have become accustomed to. The latest events here in Bosnia and Herzegovina are causing great concern, not only here, in the region, but also in Brussels, Washington, Berlin, Paris, because there is a lot of talk about the resolution, secession of a state, institutions like the Prosecutor's Office, state court, joint forces, military forces or the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and everything else, along with what has been established at the state level in the last few decades by either High Representatives or our politicians. So, what is your comment on the current situation here?

DANIEL SERWER: I think it's a serious situation. I think it should draw the attention of the capitals in Europe and the United States, and I think something needs to be done to prevent a slide into conflict.

N1: When Milorad Dodik says he wants the state institutions to fall apart, but also wants to return, as he says, to the original Dayton. What does that tell you about his intentions and what damage can he inflict on Bosnia and Herzegovina, even if he tries to do it, not if he does it?

DANIEL SERWER: First of all, I know that there is only one body authorized to give final interpretations of the Dayton Agreement, and that is the High Representative, not President Dodik. No, I don't know what he means by the original thing, he probably means the Bonn powers, for example. But that's not an opinion, that's up to the High Representative. It seems to me that what he is doing is trying to find the limits of what he can get away with from the Europeans and Americans. It is high time for the Europeans and Americans to make it clear that he has already crossed the lines.

N1: Professor, he is talking about the return of the Army of Republika Srpska, the intelligence service of Republika Srpska. Recently, he even threatened that SIPA will not be allowed to cross entity lines. Can such a number of servants here cause some kind of conflict, in addition to the political conflict, which we have been seeing for years between Mr. Dodik, Čović, Izetbegović and all others on the political scene in BiH?

DANIEL SERWER: It is not for me to say whether this conflict will escalate from political to military. I want to make that clear. But it seems to me that there will likely be a military conflict if this continues. I think it might be a different military conflict than the previous one, because I think it is better understood today what is militarily necessary than it was in the past. But, the prospects are that if the things he is saying continue, there will be forces in Bosnia ready to challenge.

N1: How much are other political forces here in Bosnia and Herzegovina, such as SDA, which is the largest Bosniak party, HDZ, which is the largest Croatian party, to blame for this situation, because we know that Mr. Dodik and Mr. Izetbegović have been trading rhetoric for several weeks. And Mr. Čović sometimes basically plays Dodik's card, sometimes he is silent about everything that is happening here?

DANIEL SERWER: I would blame the nationalist parties in general for the current dysfunctional situation in BiH. But at the same time, I must admit that they are in power because citizens have put them there. And if Bosnians want something different from what they have, they have to vote for different people.