Background to the Brussels Action: Division Far from Bosnia's Eyes?!

By Edin Subašić for Radiosarajevo.ba

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Although negotiations on amendments to the Election Law in Bosnia and Herzegovina were declared failed on March 20, and European Union teams led by Angelina Eichhorst and pro-Brussels Bosnian negotiators (Bakir Izetbegović, Fahrudin Radončić, Elmedin Konaković, etc.) fortunately dispersed without an outcome detrimental to the state, the Brussels administration is still not giving up on a project that fundamentally undermines the BiH Constitution and creates space for further destruction.

Therefore, the announcement of a new round of negotiations can only mean a new danger for the state and requires an effective reaction from genuine pro-Bosnian forces before any damage is done in Brussels!

What has happened in the meantime for the EU to now try to urgently organize a new round of negotiations with the same unsuccessful participants, but now in Brussels?

To recall, when the negotiations failed about 15 days ago, US Ambassador Michael Murphy was least disappointed, stating that "...it is better that we did not reach any agreement than to have made a bad one."

In Sarajevo's political circles, this was interpreted as Murphy's "fig in his pocket," i.e., a happy acceptance of European failure, because the US, in its still unclear, and Ukrainian crisis-fueled, rapid return to the Balkans, has other plans for Bosnia, where the State Department will play the main role, not Brussels.

On the last day of March, Ambassador Murphy, at a highly publicized press conference, presented US priorities in BiH: promoting reconciliation among constituent peoples and citizens, then reforms in the area of the rule of law, especially in the fight against corruption, economic reforms, strengthening US investments and trade of BiH with the US, and then a very important goal that Milorad Dodik went mad over, and Dragan Čović rushed to consult in Zagreb.

"I will fight against the influence of local and external actors, especially Russia and China, who represent a threat to our common interests and undermine the future of BiH. Bosnia and Herzegovina belongs in the Euro-Atlantic community, not with an authoritarian Russia that is turned to the past," said Murphy.

It is evident that with the US's concrete engagement with such an agenda, the EU is taking a back seat, and the concepts and interests of some EU member states, Serbia and Croatia, and Russia are being seriously disrupted. This also applies to domestic operatives of Greater State projects. Accordingly, the alarm bells are ringing in Brussels, and there is an urgent attempt to revive the EU concept, which the "negotiators" did not have the courage to sign in Sarajevo.

Just 24 hours after Murphy's appearance, the news was released that the EU intends to continue negotiations on the Election Law, and in Brussels, i.e., in circumstances where the pressure from EU representatives on the same actors will be much stronger, and at the same time, everyone will avoid the already created negative sentiment in the BiH public towards this process. Brussels generally does not care about the moral aspects of its relationship with BiH, especially now when the imperative is to preempt the Americans in the final takeover of Bosnia!

When it comes to domestic "negotiators," it is significant that recently Izetbegović, Radončić, and Konaković have very coordinatedly agreed that "Bosniaks do not need to elect representatives for Croats!" The earlier statement by the Reis-ul-ulema Dr. Husein ef. Kavazović was also mentioned in the public in this context. The Riyaset has not made any further statements in the meantime.

Thus, the mentioned trio is trying to legitimize this as an official Bosniak political stance (because it comes from the leaders of the leading Bosniak parties) and to define a position from which they will (possibly!) act in Brussels. Therefore, it is good that they have declared themselves as supporters of treating Bosnia according to the ethnic concept, and have completely rejected the civic concept!

The public in Sarajevo met this coldly, because it is evident that their position completely coincides with that of the HDZ, from which stems the likely agreement to amend the Election Law according to HDZ's wishes and the concepts created in the EU and promoted by the Republic of Croatia. And those variants with ethnically clean electoral units and the electoral voting model (and a 10 times more valuable vote for Croats from Herzegovina than others) have already been exposed as a path to further ethnic division of the country and illegal alteration of the essence of BiH's constitutional concept by adopting amendments to a key law (given that such an amendment to the Constitution would not receive support in the BiH Parliament).

For Izetbegović, it is clear that after his father Alija, he is persisting in the ethnic modeling of the state. Radončić is trying to regain political importance through negotiations, but Konaković's motives for going to Brussels would be unclear, after public condemnations and the fiasco in Sarajevo. It seems that DF and Željko Komšić have already distanced themselves from the potential continuation of negotiations. NES is not commenting, and from SDP and Naša stranka, given their known positions, it is expected that they will refuse to participate.

It is important to note here that for any potential trip to Brussels with such intentions and in the assumed composition, with some additional decorative element – the "negotiators" have no legitimacy! Therefore, the legality of any decisions made outside the institutions of BiH is entirely questionable. They are merely party leaders willing to negotiate for their own reasons, not representatives of BiH's institutions and bodies. The question of legality and their criminal responsibility could be raised here if they do what the EU has asked of them during the negotiations so far.

Also, public opinion in its initial reactions does not support the continuation of negotiations under the same matrix. Therefore, any participation in the new Brussels round could have a very negative impact on the rating of party leaders in the next elections, if they are held. Recent analyses often state that the intention of national leaders is to prevent elections in order to remain in power, and that they are therefore ready for radical steps and maximum escalation of the situation. HDZ BiH is working on this through the Minister of Finance, Vjekoslav Bevanda, who is obstructing the adoption of the budget, and thus the financing of elections, but available data also indicate the readiness of party paramilitary formations to provoke incidents! This is one of the reasons for the increased activities of EUFOR.

As for the EU tactic – taking BiH leaders out of Sarajevo – this is a scenario already seen in 1992 when negotiations on Bosnia were moved from Sarajevo to the Lisbon Conference, where Alija Izetbegović, with Boban and Karadžić, was drawn (?) into the disastrous concept of ethnic division of the state through the "Carrington-Cutileiro Plan."

The EU concept of amending the Election Law has the same character. Therefore, caution and readiness to prevent any outcome that would lead to a catastrophe like the one caused by the aforementioned 1992 plan are now necessary!

It is important to note that Croatia, as very interested in amending the Election Law to suit the HDZ, has been strongly lobbying in Brussels in recent days for the continuation of negotiations. Zagreb is constantly pressuring Brussels by claiming that "...elections cannot be held until electoral reform is agreed upon..." as stated by Andrej Plenković, Prime Minister of the Republic of Croatia.

Ambassador Murphy reacted to this possibility with a clear message that "...there must be elections, and boycotting elections would be a very bad option." Formally and legally, the BiH Election Law is in force, and all conditions for holding them exist. Everything else is political manipulation used to cover up a creeping coup, and law enforcement institutions must finally react.

The victories of Viktor Orbán and Aleksandar Vučić in the elections in Hungary and Serbia have certainly given additional confidence to pro-Russian nationalists Milorad Dodik and Dragan Čović, regardless of the Russian military failure in Ukraine and the international decline in ratings. Although Vučić is in a delicate position and pressured to make a final choice – the EU or Russia – this will not prevent him from continuing his Greater Serbian project in his new term, which, besides Russia, also has support among EU member states.

Dodik is already threatening a new anti-constitutional move, that RS will organize elections itself, although no one except the Central Election Commission of BiH has the authority to call parliamentary elections in any part of the country. There has been no reaction to this yet, neither in BiH nor from abroad. Moreover, it seems like support and pressure on the EU to force amendments to the Election Law so that "conditions are met" for holding elections.

Therefore, the current situation in Bosnia is rightly assessed as "the most difficult since the end of the war." The Ukrainian crisis and the Russian threat have certainly accelerated processes in the country and at one point created a seemingly favorable situation for the state to move forward from years of stagnation and political suffocation. Because, with Russia's aggression and the mobilization of the West and NATO against that threat, Russian support and the potential of Bosnia's negators have diminished. Especially after the American return to the Balkans.

However, the so-called pro-Bosnian forces from the civic-left political option did not use that moment at all for a quality international performance and reaffirmation of the Bosnian position in the world. Nationalist forces (SDA, HDZ, SNSD) even obstructed any such attempt and deliberately missed opportunities to establish more operational and substantive relations with the US.

On the other hand, the EU quickly returned to its concept for the Balkans as soon as it assessed that there was no major danger of Russian aggression outside Ukraine, and even intensified pressure on BiH partners to continue the process of ethnic separation through these negotiations.

The behavior of the US will be key here, from which Bosnia can only expect effective support. However, there are two currents within the US administration itself: one, represented by Matthew Palmer and Gabriel Escobar, very close to the European anti-Bosnian policy, but with unclear support in Washington; and the other, which the new ambassador to BiH, Michael Murphy, is currently promoting as the official policy of the State Department. Very soon, through the development of the EU initiative to continue negotiations, it will become clear which option will affect this country in the future. This may also be an opportunity to finally break with the long-read European concept for the Balkans.

The domestic "negotiators" cannot be prevented from traveling to Brussels. However, any BiH politician who travels to Brussels now will take responsibility for wrong decisions that may constitute treason of state interests, and thus bear the consequences, both legal and moral.